Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Clyde Edwards-Helaire be a top-12 RB?
2. Are Jerick McKinnon or Darrel Williams draftable?
3. Is Mecole Hardman draftable?
4. Could any other wideouts not named Tyreek Hill step up?
5. Is Travis Kelce still the unquestioned #1 TE?
Kansas City has the personnel to be a dynasty. Last year's Super Bowl loss could be a bump on the road, or it could be one of many disappointments. Some of it hinges on how long Tom Brady & company can keep things going in Tampa Bay. Some of it hinges on whether Buffalo or Baltimore--or even Cleveland--can put together the kind of seasons they're all capable of if things break right. But for now, the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC, and arguably in the NFL. One has to assume the 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes is still getting better, which is scary. He has a QB-1 ADP for a reason. There's no good reason to expect anything less than top 3, and he's fully capable of breaking his own QB record for fantasy points in a season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB-14) is undervalued, after near-universal hype last August drove him into the top 5. I cautioned folks not to jump on the bandwagon then. This year I'd be happy getting him at 14. His five TDs on 217 touches were an anomaly. Assuming the 29-year-old Jerick McKinnon (RB-75) doesn't suddenly revert to his 2015 pre-decline days, and assuming Darrel Williams (RB-57) remains just a depth piece, CEH will have space to net 250+ touches and 8+ scores. His overall ADP is 24. In 12-team leagues, there's no way he should escape the second round.
Tyreek Hill has always been an athletic freak, but it's incredible how elite he's been these past four seasons. Remember, he was a fifth-round pick out of West Alabama--a converted running back and kick return specialist. It's hard to question his WR-2 ADP. The only knock is that for an elite WR, he's not a high-volume pass-catcher, and his 17 touchdowns in 15 games last season seem unsustainable. But that's nit-picking. And with Sammy Watkins gone, there's no obvious #2. Mecole Hardman (WR-52), Demarcus Robinson (WR-88), Byron Pringle (WR-105), and fifth-round rookie Cornell Powell (WR-128) will vie for Mahomes' attention. Hardman, a 2019 second-rounder, has not lived up to expectations and might have one more season as a starter in this offense. If you want to bet on Hardman, you're betting on his talent finally revealing itself across 16 games. Yes, he could flash top-40 production. What's more likely is that he and the rest of the pack are vastly overshadowed by Tyreek, Travis Kelce, and CEH. We'll have a better sense of how these secondary performers will play out by mid-September.
As for Kelce (TE-1), we're talking about one of the most dominant tight ends in history. Back in 2014, when this blog was still a baby, I urged readers to draft him despite a near-universal TE-23 ranking. ESPN ranked him 28th. He was 10th on my draft board. It seemed nuts. But as I often say, bet on talent + opportunity. And Kelce had both entering the 2014 season. And for the first time he might face minimal competition, thanks to fifth-round rookie Noah Gray (TE-39). Not that Gray will challenge Kelce. It's more that Gray could cut into Hardman's, Robinson's, Pringle's, and Powell's potential ceilings. I'm looking forward to seeing what Gray can do in this offense, and whether he might be dynasty material for those looking ahead to 2026. (I hope most of you are not looking that far ahead, by the way.)
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