Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Aaron Rodgers be a near-elite QB?
2. Can Aaron Jones continue to be an RB1?
3. Can A.J. Dillon be an RB3?
4. Are any WRs besides Davante Adams draftable?
5. Is Robert Tonyan a reliable TE1?
I was about seven years old at the start of the 49ers' historic and seemingly endless Joe Montana / Steve Young era, which spanned 20 seasons. The Packers' Brett Favre / Aaron Rodgers era is entering its 30th season. The latter pair don't have as many rings, conference titles, or playoff appearances. But they are possibly (I haven't researched it) the longest-serving starting-QB pair in NFL history. (Of course, if Tom Brady had remained in New England for another decade, he and Matt Cassel would have broken that mark--which is a bit of a joke for all you Matt Cassel fans).
Season #30 almost didn't happen. The disgruntled Rodgers (and some might say his frustrations are entirely warranted) certainly expected greater success since Green Bay's 2010 Super Bowl win. They usually have a fairly dominant team, but usually not dominant enough. Last year's playoff loss to the Bucs was made possible, in part, by Pack management selecting Rodgers' backup in the first round of the 2020 draft. They could have tried trading up a few spots to land Justin Jefferson, or else snag someone like Tee Higgins (who went to the Bengals a few picks later). Instead, this passing attack was--and remains--extraordinarily and unnecessarily top-heavy. The 37-year-old Rodgers proved last year he's still somehow peaking, earning his highest completion percentage and throwing the most TD passes of his career. As I've alluded to before, a lot of QBs realistically could crack the top 5, and Rodgers' QB-8 ADP could just as easily be QB-4. He's a clear buy at his current price.
Aaron Jones crushed fantasy last season despite earning less than 250 touches, thanks to efficient running (5.5 YPC), a healthy dose of receptions (3.4 per game), and double-digit scores. With Jamaal Williams now out of the picture, the biggest question is how much A.J. Dillon (RB-40 ADP) will factor into this offense. Despite the Packers re-upping with Jones (RB-10) on a four-year, $48 million contract, Dillon appears to be the best value play. It's not that Jones can't be an RB1. It's that Dillon might not need more than about eight touches a game to crack the top 40. And he's also an elite handcuff if Jones is sidelined. Frankly, I'd draft Dillon at least a round before his 10th-round value, and probably 2-3 rounds earlier if I get Jones. This is a tandem that needs to be rostered together. Trust me on this.
I love drafting #1 WRs in top-heavy offenses. Davante Adams had 358 points last year despite missing two contests. His 25.6 points per game might be the highest WR mark in history. (The highest I found was OBJ's 24.6 average in 2014.) Adams (WR-1 ADP) and Tyreek Hill have oscillated between #1 and #2 all summer. Adams is the better bet based on volume. Elsewhere, third-round rookie Amari Rodgers (WR-87) should have the opportunity to produce. If I had to take any Green Bay wideout not named Adams in very deep leagues, Amari would be it. Allen Lazard (WR-76) and the newly returned Randall Cobb (WR-68) will compete with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR-82) for semi-relevance. I doubt any of them finishes in the top 50 barring an injury to Adams or Amari. And the only time I'll mention Devin Funchess (WR-125) this season is right now.
I was a Robert Tonyan doubter for several weeks last year. It's just so hard to trust journeyman, TD-dependent tight ends. It's not that Tonyan isn't talented (and he has a great rapport with Rodgers). But he'll need to progress to be a true bargain at his TE-10 ADP. Two of his three best performances came when Adams was out. Those two games accounted for 28% of Tonyan's points (almost 50 total). So I'm more comfortable with him as a back-end TE1 than I am as a top 7-9 TE.
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