Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Josh Allen a top-3 QB?
2. Which RB will be better: Devin Singletary or Zack Moss?
3. Will Stefon Diggs remain an elite WR?
4. Are any other WRs worth drafting?
5. Are any TEs worth drafting?
Five QBs went in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. Only #'s 3 and 5 have become franchise QBs. Josh Allen wasn't supposed to be on the same level as Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. But he has improved dramatically each season and is poised to be a consistent top-5 fantasy QB for years to come. One of my favorite Josh Allen stats is that in his first two seasons, the most passing yards he ever had in a game was 266. Last year he had eight 300+ yard passing games. Stefon Diggs was a big reason. Allen's development was another big reason. Put it together, and there's simply not much else to say about the #2-ranked preseason QB, except that he's one of six or seven guys who could easily wind up the #1 QB this year. So consider that if you pick him #2.
When will Buffalo's RBBC stop being an RBBC? For now, there's no sign of anything changing. Zack Moss (RB-37) and Devin Singletary (RB-42) are primed to frustrate fantasy managers just like they did last season. Combined with Allen's versatility in the running game, it's hard to see how Moss and Singletary become weekly fantasy starters unless one of them is sidelined. But if you're in a zero-RB frame-of-mind on draft day, waiting 8-9 rounds and then snagging both of them is the kind of strategy that could help you win a title, because if Moss or Singletary is forced into (or earns) a bellcow role by December, you're looking at top-20 RB production at a bottom-of-the-barrel price.
Maybe I'm mistaken, but it seems unusual for a star receiver to join a new team and then become even better. Stefon Diggs wasn't just "better" in Buffalo. He dominated, finishing as the #3 fantasy wideout and scoring 62 points more than he did in his second greatest season. And as always, context is important. (A) He deserved everything he achieved, and (B) he led the league with 166 targets. He averaged 2.0 fantasy points per target compared to 2.3 the previous year and 2.1 two years before that. So if you're betting on Diggs at his WR-3 ADP price, you're betting on him to remain a target monster. Who knows if that will happen. It probably will. But I think top 6-8 is more likely. The rest of the receiving corps is a hot mess. Cole Beasley (WR-55) is no lock to remain with this team--or even on an NFL field--this season based on his outspoken stance on vaccinations. 2020 fourth-rounder Gabriel Davis (WR-63) will battle the 34-year-old Emmanuel Sanders (WR-65) for semi-fantasy relevance. In an imperfect world, no-ADP options like sixth-round rookie Marquez Stevenson and perennial WR7 Isaiah McKenzie will get their shot. Candidly, Stevenson is the most intriguing option of anyone not named Stefon, as he appears to have the tools to be a 50/500 guy if continues developing (and gets the opportunity).
It's been four years since the Bills had a top-30 TE. Yes, four years. Dawson Knox (TE-34 ADP) is the best they've got, and Jacob Hollister (TE-45) is #2. Hollister played with Josh Allen in college, so don't be surprised if he "sneaks" into the top 28.
Oh, and one side note: In doing research on defensive performance in 2020, I noticed that the Bills played five games last year on shortened weeks (e.g. Monday-to-Sunday), generally playing teams that were more rested. Typically, this is highly unusual. Most teams only have 2-3 shortened weeks, and often against teams who also have shortened weeks (e.g. Sunday-to-Thursday).
Yet the Bills went 4-1 in these games, outscoring their opponents 165-96. I'll have more to say about all this when my research is finished.
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