Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Chris Carson a reliable top-20 RB?
2. Is there room for D.K. Metcalf to post even bigger numbers
3. Will Tyler Lockett be a top-16 WR?
4. Are any other wideouts draftable in deep leagues?
5. Is Gerald Everett draftable?
Last summer, and then into September, I pushed Dak Prescott as an elite QB with a good shot at finishing the season #1. One of you pointed out that Russell Wilson deserved similar respect, and you turned out to be right. For the first two months of the season, Wilson was a force, racking up 228.1 fantasy points through eight games, which for all you non-math people projects out to (hold on, where's my calculator) 456.2 points. To put that in perspective, Pat Mahomes holds the QB fantasy record with 417.1. In fact, in November there were four or five QBs on pace to break Mahomes' mark. But they all fell back to earth, with Wilson falling hardest. If you follow trends, you'd know Wilson is perhaps the most consistent QB in NFL history based on level of play throughout the year. His September-October-November-December QB ratings are 101.3, 102.4, 103.0, and 100.2, respectively. It's hard to argue against him at his QB-7 ADP, so I won't.
With Chris Carson (RB-19 ADP), talent has never been in doubt. Reliability has. When he's on the field, he can be a regular RB1 and was 13th in RB points per game last season. If you can handle his higher-than-normal injury risk, he's worth grabbing at his current price. Meanwhile, the even more injury-prone Rashaad Penny (RB-53) is running out of time. A former first-rounder, he could just as easily finish 80th this season as he could 18th. If Carson goes down, he has the skills to be the team's #1. But would he get the opportunity? 2020 fourth-rounder DeeJay Dallas (RB-98) has nowhere to go but up after a poor rookie showing, while long-ago fifth-rounder Alex Collins (no ADP) has bellcow experience if this backfield becomes decimated by injuries--which very well could happen.
I very publicly and wrongly downplayed D.K. Metcalf's breakout potential last summer and into the season. Insanely, he had 90+ yards in seven of his first eight games to go with eight scores. As with most top-10 WRs, his ADP (WR-5) is tough to question. Simply put, he's earned it. However, Tyler Lockett (WR-21) seems undervalued. I don't understand it, and even when I try to understand it, it makes no sense. He's #15 on my draft board and probably could move into the top 12 without hesitation. This is a very top-heavy pass attack where Metcalf and Lockett should combine for 250 targets and could net 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns. Lockett might be the #2, but he's capable of outperforming Metcalf any given week. And one of the most undervalued #3 WRs in fantasy is second-round rookie D'Wayne Eskridge (WR-118). While he hasn't won the #3 job yet, it's a matter of "when," not "if."
The Will Dissly experiment might be drawing to a close. A former fourth-rounder, Dissly (TE-46) has battled injuries and consistency, and now Gerald Everett (TE-25) is looking to capitalize on a one-year, $6 million pay day. It would take a lot for Seattle not to feature Everett atop the tight end depth chart. He could actually crack the top 20. But in most leagues, Everett won't be more than a desperation waiver add.
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