Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Big Ben draftable?
2. Can Najee Harris be a top-10 RB?
3. Will Diontae Johnson take another step forward as a reliable WR2+?
4. Are JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool capable of WR2+ production?
5. Will Eric Ebron be used enough to be draftable in deep leagues?
Last December I shared why the 10-0 (and then 11-0) Steelers were the worst late-season undefeated team in NFL history. Many of the qualities that made past late-season undefeated teams "great" were not ever-present in Pittsburgh. Too many dropped passes. A somewhat middling (and occasionally awful) running game, and an inability to put away much worse teams. Five of those first 11 wins were by five points or less, and close victories against squads like the Broncos, Texans, and the Cowboys (with "Garrett Gilbert" at QB) were signs on the wall. 10 of the other 11 NFL teams to start 11-0 ranked #1 or #2 in scoring. The Steelers ranked 12th.
I write this to set the stage for what will be the first of two transitional years for this storied franchise. Ben Roethlisberger will begin his 18th season, but his offensive line is entirely new, as is his running back. Next year we might see Ben retired, or perhaps on another team (suprising as that sounds) if Pittsburgh can't get over the hump in 2021 and decides not to throw more money at Ben if he can no longer help them make a strong playoff run. Ben has played 16 games only three times in his last 12 campaigns and is not the dependable fantasy starter he once was. At the same time, his QB-23 ADP seems odd. The RB upgrade alone (including Najee Harris's comfort in the passing game), not to mention a high-upside receiving corps, should keep Ben in the top-16 conversation, with a shot at recapturing the old top-10 magic if he stays healthy. That's a big "if." But just like Matthew Stafford's 20+ ADP two summers ago made him my favorite final-round pick, Ben has the weapons to do a lot of damage.
Not much needs to be said about Najee (RB-11 ADP), who could become one of the two best backfield Harris's in Steeler history. If the new o-line holds up, Harris will push for top-5 production. He caught 43 balls his senior year at Alabama and is one of the few NFL RBs with no obvious handcuff--no one who can step in and produce at remotely his level. Last summer Clyde Edwards-Helaire's stock skyrocketed into the top 5 in late August. Harris is arguably better and more versatile. I would be thrilled to snag him early in the second round.
While researching for this write-up, I had forgotten JuJu Smith-Schuster outperformed Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool in 2020. Of course, Claypool was the boom-bust option. But I had misremembered Johnson as the de facto #1. And actually, Johnson edged JuJu by 0.2 points in points per game (Johnson missed one; JuJu played all 16). But JuJu did more overall despite earning 16 fewer targets than Johnson. A big reason is Johnson's NFL-high 16 drops. The fact that Ben kept targeting Johnson, however, offers clues about what we might expect in 2021. I like Johnson at his WR-22 price, as he's in a good position to once again lead the team in targets. JuJu (WR-30) and Claypool (WR-28) are priced for regressions, which makes sense if you think Ben will miss considerable time. At 25, 24, and 23 years old (respectively), all three should be viewed as the ascending talents they are.
And while Eric Ebron (TE-26) gave Pittsburgh stability at the tight end spot, his eight drops left plenty of room for improvement. But his relevance is threatened by second-round rookie Pat Freiermuth (TE-38). Both guys should outperform expectations, assuming Ebron doesn't lose his job outright. He's signed for two more seasons, so the team will find a way to use both players even if Freiermuth shines. For dynasty leaguers, assuming this franchise can't hold onto all three star wideouts (a fair assumption), Freiermuth could become a terrific #3 or #4 offensive option by 2023--not bad for an ultra-cheap TE whose time surely will come.
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