Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will start at QB, and will it matter?
2. Is Antonio Gibson an RB1?
3. Can Curtis Samuel be a weekly WR4+?
4. Beside Samuel and Terry McLaurin, is any other WR draftable?
5. Is Logan Thomas a top-8 TE?
I can’t remember the last time--or any time--a late-season playoff contender dumped a QB who started as many in-season games as Dwayne Haskins. The former first-rounder was supposed to anchor this offense for years. Instead, he was deemed worse than fourth-stringer Taylor Heinicke, which both highlights this franchise's dysfunction, and also demonstrates how close they came to fielding a good enough team to compete in the playoffs (they gave the heavily favored Bucs a bit of a scare). Heading into this season, Heinicke will compete for the starting job with former Carolina teammate Kyle Allen, as well as Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's been just about everyone's teammate. If you've read this blog more than a half-dozen times, you probably know I have a soft spot for Fitz, who might have been a Hall-of-Famer if a GM had ever built an offense around him--instead of using him as a bridge for a younger QB. His QB-25 ADP suggests he won't start every game, and that's a good bet to take. But he can be a top-20 option in this offense if he gets the chance.
Antonio Gibson shocked me last season. I did not think any RB would thrive in this offense, but he looked dominant. The team's improved defense presumably helped, as game script often influences RB usage. But I was fascinated to find that nearly half of his carries (82 out of 170) occurred when Washington trailed, and 41 occurred when they were tied. In other words, only 28% of his carries--and only 23% of his total touches--happened when Washington led. That's not a normal distribution, particularly for a lead back. We'll see if it carries over into this season. But for now, it's hard to argue with his RB-12 ADP. And believe me, given all of the talented RB2s, I want to lower Gibson on my draft board. But he did a lot of damage in a limited bellcow role, suggesting his ceiling is much higher. Meanwhile, J.D. McKissic is a nothing-to-lose pickup at his RB-46 ADP.
Washington has enough question marks at wide receiver to fill a clown car. Beyond the seemingly uber-reliable Terry McLaurin (WR-10), the versatile Curtis Samuel (WR-39) has breakout and bust potential playing on a new team with a less defined role out of the gate. Third-round rookie Dyami Brown (WR-119) has big-play ability. Journeyman Adam Humphries (WR-115) is good enough to contribute on teams that need receiver help, but not good enough to insert in weekly fantasy lineups. Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR-132) is on the verge of becoming a fourth-round bust despite being only 23. And both Cam Sims (WR-135) and Steven Sims (no ADP) are good enough to start if needed, but not good enough to be in Washington's long-term plans. If Fitz wins the QB job, Dyami Brown's prospects improve. But for now, McLaurin and Samuel are ranked where they are for a reason; everyone else is a crapshoot.
It seems every season a veteran TE comes out of nowhere to dominate--or at least play far better than expected. Playing on his fourth team since getting drafted in 2014, and with only 35 career catches, the 29-year-old Logan Thomas became the #3 TE fantasy scorer. In fact, the sadly often injured Jordan Reed--once viewed as one of the league's top young tight ends--had only one season better than Thomas's. I was concerned the fantasy universe would overreact and rank Thomas in the top 5. Instead, his TE-9 ADP is sensible, and possibly even conservative. Thomas is a great bet to finish in the top 7.
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