Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Ryan Tannehill be a top-10 QB?
2. Is Derrick Henry a reliable top-4 RB?
3. Will Darrynton Evans or Brian Hill be the handcuff to roster?
4. Will A.J. Brown be a WR1?
5. Can Julio Jones continue to be a weekly must-start WR?
Rarely has a QB gone from outcast to hero simply by changing teams. A former #8 overall draft pick, Ryan Tannehill gave the Dolphins three solid seasons from 2013 to 2015. But he also took 149 sacks during that timeframe, and Miami never had a winning record. Then in 2016, when backup Matt Moore looked about as good as Tannehill, the writing was on the wall. Although I wrote very positive things about Tannehill in the early days, I never saw him becoming a near-weekly QB1. In part-time work he averaged 18.7 fantasy points in 2019, and then jumped to 21.5 last season as a 16-game starter. The Titans' run-dominant offense suits Tannehill perfectly. He somehow finished #7 in QB fantasy scoring, in part thanks to seven TDs on the ground and a couple of big-play receivers. The only reason his QB-11 ADP isn't better is because there are so many talented guys in the top 8-16. If my evidence-based assumption about Derrick Henry's durability holds true, Tannehill will throw a lot more than expected, which should keep him in the top 9.
Many of you know what I'm about to write: in the 16-game era, 73% of RBs who have amassed 350+ touches in a season have regressed statistically the following season. When factoring 400+ touch RBs, 80% regress. And these statistical drops are not small. 350+ touch RBs average a 23% drop, while 400+ touch RBs average a 30% drop.
Derrick Henry had 396 touches last year (not including 21 more in the playoffs). If you want to win in Vegas, you play the percentages. If you want to win in fantasy, you play the percentages. And there is a high likelihood Henry will fall well short of his RB-4 ADP. One of my favorite handcuffs last year was rookie Darrynton Evans, and 2021 could be his year to bust out. Owning an RB-63 ADP, Evans will compete with veteran offseason addition Brian Hill (RB-85). The winner of this depth-chart battle will be one of my top late-round draft targets, and I'm hoping the higher-upside Evans wins it.
Julio Jones. Wow. I should have seen that coming, but didn't. He is now one of the toughest top-30 WRs to value, as his past dominance is hard to recalculate in a very different offense. His former Falcons enjoyed the fourth most past attempts last season. Tennessee? Third-to-last. So Julio's best path to meeting/exceeding expectations is--as I alluded to above--for Henry to miss a big chunk of time, forcing Tannehill to throw more to compensate for a backfield downgrade. Right now I would probably be more excited drafting Julio at his #40 overall ranking than I would starting him every week. But he should be no worse than a WR2. And A.J. Brown's WR-8 ADP is clearly inflated. Julio is more talented and consistent than Corey Davis. Brown’s ceiling this year is top 10-12, making him an unnecessary reach. Elsewhere, Josh Reynolds (WR-97) and Dez Fitzpatrick (WR-111) will combine for no more than 600 yards, though both have the talent to pop if Brown or Julio goes down.
No one will be saying "Anthony Firkser fell into my lap" on draft day, unless Anthony is at someone's house and trips. While he might actually produce at his TE-23 ADP expectations, he'll probably need 7+ touchdowns to crack the top 18. When it comes to fantasy, I'd rather bet on volume than touchdowns, because volume isn't as situational. If you want a comparably priced TE with more upside, look to Austin Hooper or Cole Kmet.
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