Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will win the QB battle, and will he be a top-16 producer?
2. Is Michael Thomas worth drafting as a WR2+ when healthy?
3. Can Tre'Quan Smith or Marquez Callaway be a weekly starter?
4. Are any other WRs worth rostering?
5. Is Adam Trautman draftable?
It's fitting that Drew Brees and Philip Rivers retired at the same time. If the Chargers hadn't drafted Rivers in 2004, they probably would have had enough money to throw at Brees during contract negotiations after the 2005 season. Instead, Brees opted to leave and chose the Saints over the Dolphins. (As a consolation, Miami traded for QB Daunte Culpepper, which pretty much sums up the divergent paths of these two franchises.)
So 15 years after Brees officially ended New Orleans' Aaron Brooks era, a new era begins with a QB battle for the ages. Seriously, this contest has mammoth implications. Taysom Hill (QB-27 ADP) waited four years to become more than a mere gadget player, demonstrating NFL-ready skills while netting double-digit scores in each of his four starts while Brees was sidelined. And yet, three of those four contests were against bottom-6 pass defenses (Eagles once and Falcons twice). And he wasn't exactly a big-play threat downfield. With Hill you get great running ability and capable passing. He and the Saints should be good enough to win 8-10 games even if Michael Thomas sits half the season—or even traded. But Hill won't lead this team deep into the playoffs, and you've got to think the coaching staff realizes that.
And that's where Jameis Winston comes in. One of the only QB3s with strong QB1 potential in the past several years, Winston (QB-29) frankly deserves to start. While it's hard to forget his 30 interceptions in 2019, keep in mind some of those were desperation-time downfield heaves. If Steph Curry can be praised (deservedly) for sacrificing three-point shooting percentage by attempting low-percentage three-quarter-court shots, Winston can be excused for decisions he wouldn't have had to make if Tampa Bay hadn't given up the fourth most points in the league. I'd be shocked if he didn't start 10+ games and secure top-22 QB production.
Alvin Kamara struggled when Hill started, which might or might not matter. The big takeaway is that there's no running back like Kamara (RB-3). He's never earned more than 200 carries, has 80+ receptions in each of this four seasons, and is averaging just shy of one touchdown per contest. As Michael Thomas's stock keeps falling, Kamara's is as high as ever. He will begin the year as the offensive centerpiece, earning about 16 touches a game--possibly from all over the field. It's hard to underestimate someone who's been as consistently great as he has. Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Latavius Murray (RB-48) will continue to serve as a complementary back and RB2-capable handcuff. Devonta Freeman (no ADP), Ty Montgomery (no ADP), and Dwayne Washington (no ADP) will bide their time on the sidelines.
Back to Michael Thomas: A year ago he was coming off a season when he earned 33% of all targets. His target share among WRs and TEs was 48%. His career 78% catch rate was higher than just about every single-season starting WR catch rate in NFL history (look it up). His 470 receptions through four seasons put him on pace to crack the top 20 all-time by the time he's only 30 years old. There's arguably never been as great a start to a WR's NFL career since Jerry Rice. But the wheels came off in 2020, and things don't look any more promising in 2021. Thomas's next shot at a healthy season will be when he's a few months shy of his 30th birthday. His ADP has fallen this past week from WR-19 to WR-25. He’s still capable of being a must-start option when healthy. But where will he be playing when he gets healthy? Elsewhere, Tre'Quan Smith will be expected to step up--a role in which he performed solidly, though only occasionally spectacularly, last year. It would be foolish not to take a chance on him at his WR-63 ADP. Some combination of Marquez Callaway (a quickly ascending WR-76), the troubled Deonte Harris (WR-115), and the plucky Jalen McCleskey (no ADP) will eat up most of the receiving targets not used on Smith and Thomas. In September and October, one of these three will almost assuredly be a top-60 producer (likely Callaway, with a shot at displacing Smith as the de facto #1.
And don't sleep on Adam Trautman (TE-20). Playing behind Jared Cook last season, his anemic production is meaningless heading into September. Trautman is an exceptional athlete and pass-catcher. If Cook could be the 18th best fantasy TE in 2020, Trautman can be top-16 in 2021. If I don't get a top-6 TE, I'll probably take a flyer on him with my last pick.
---
Sign up for FF4W's Annual Preseason Draft Rankings: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Engage on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W