Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Lamar Jackson return to elite status?
2. Will J.K. Dobbins be a top-16 RB?
3. Will Gus Edwards or Justice Hill be fantasy-relevant?
4. Who will lead the WR corps, and will he be a weekly starter?
5. Is Mark Andrews a top-5 TE?
Last summer, Lamar Jackson was a pre-season top-2 QB, but finished way back in 10th with 22.2 points per game. And because context matters, it's interesting that three years earlier, 22.2 points per game would have made him #1. So it's not that Lamar "regressed." Sure, his TDs and rushing yards dipped. But he was still incredible. And that's why his QB-4 ADP this summer is a pleasant surprise. Often the fantasy universe overreacts to perceived regressions. While he might never be an elite passer (his bad-throw metrics are clearly sub-par), his floor is as high as any NFL quarterback, including Patrick Mahomes'. COVID/vaccination issues aside, if Jackson is in good shape heading into Week 1, and if you draft him at his 4th/5th round value, you're in good shape.
J.K. Dobbins flashed enough last season to make some managers reach for him as an RB1. Glorified handcuffs Gus Edwards (RB-43 ADP) and Justice Hill (RB-95) should combine for around 125-175 touches. And of course Lamar is a great bet for 150. So where does that leave Dobbins? He finished 24th last year despite getting only 152 touches. While his huge TD-per-touch ratio probably is not sustainable, surprisingly his 6.0 YPC could almost be, and his passing-game usage should climb. At last season's pace, a 225-touch Dobbins would have been the 8th best RB. If anything, his current #17 ranking is conservative. He's unquestionably the most talented and versatile RB in this backfield.
The early returns on the Marquise Brown experiment don't look good. The former first-rounder has not looked like a franchise wideout, which helps explain why the Ravens used a first-rounder this year on Rashod Bateman (WR-60) and added inconsistent-but-talented veteran Sammy Watkins (WR-74). This is not a year to rely on Brown (WR-45). Bateman and Watkins are better values at their price points; one of them should crack the top 40. Fourth-round rookie Tylan Wallace (WR-121) and former contributor Miles Boykin (no ADP) will compete for backup duties, with Wallace holding far more value as a more higher-upside receiver.
There's not much to say about Mark Andrews (TE-5). His ADP was better last summer. Coming off a relatively disappointing 2020 campaign, the question now is whether 2019 was his ceiling. Last year he had six games with less than seven fantasy points, and none of his big games were as good as his four best games from 2019. There's no way he's getting squeezed in this offense. But I can't imagine reaching for him.
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