Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Matthew Stafford be a top-10 QB?
2. Can Darrell Henderson be the bellcow?
3. Is Cooper Kupp a top-18 WR?
4. Will Robert Woods be a top-14 WR?
5. Is Tyler Higbee draftable?
Matthew Stafford found quite a good landing spot in the Rams. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since 1991, and his new team has been one great QB away from winning one or even two the past few years. Stafford qualifies as "great." The former #1 overall pick didn't get a running back who matched his level arguably until last year with the arrival of D'Andre Swift. Consider that last year's Week 1 starting Detroit RB was the 35-year-old Adrian Peterson. Before that he leaned primarily on guys like Kerryon Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell, Mikel Leshoure, Jahvid Best, and Kevin Smith. Sure, Theo Riddick and occasionally Reggie Bush offered serious pop. But for more than a decade, an entire offense rested on Stafford's shoulders, not unlike Miami's RB-deficient offense for much of Dan Marino's career.
So Stafford got out, and despite Cam Akers' heart-breaking season-ending injury, his surrounding talent is far better than what he's ever had in Detroit. I'm comfortable with his QB-10 ADP. His floor shouldn't drop below 12-13, and his ceiling is on par with Jared Goff's when Goff was at his best (i.e. top-5 if things break right). I'll happily draft Stafford as the 8th or 9th QB off the board.
In the backfield, all eyes are on Darrell Henderson, whose RB ADP has skyrocketed in recent weeks to 28. There's more room to ascend. The biggest knock on him is his durability, and his passing-game usage has been minimal for someone expected to be a bellcow--or close to it. Still, in this offense he could see Todd Gurley-like volume near the goal line, and that alone makes him worth the risk as a high-end RB3 with decent upside if he can remain healthy most of the year. Xavier Jones (RB-61) and Jake Funk (RB-101) should get a lot of best-ball attention. I'll be watching this handcuff battle closely, because there's a solid chance one of them will get at least a couple starts this year.
Speaking of injury-prone, Cooper Kupp was knocked out of the postseason last year and missed half of 2018 with knee injuries. Between him (WR-20 ADP) and Robert Woods (WR-16), Woods seems safer. Both clearly have top-20 potential every week they're on the field, and if Stafford takes the passing attack to levels we saw in Detroit, both could be top-14 WRs--not unlike their 2019 production with Goff at the helm. Meanwhile, the newly acquired DeSean Jackson has not been in prime form since 2016, and his WR-87 ADP looks about right. Van Jefferson (WR-116) is one of the better #4 receivers and almost assuredly will start some games this year.
I cautioned readers to be wary of Tyler Higbee last summer, coming off of his insane finish to the previous season. He's an above-middling starting NFL TE. Maybe top 14. But certainly not a guy you want to lean on in fantasy, especially with Woods and Kupp soaking up targets. This year he has a more realistic TE-17 ADP. Much depends on the development of rookie Jacob Harris (TE-45). If Higbee becomes the unquestioned starter, I'd buy shares at his current price in very deep leagues on the assumption he'll do no worse than match his 2020 line of 44/521/5.
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