Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Justin Fields be a top-16 QB?
2. Is David Montgomery an RB1?
3. Will Tarik Cohen return to streaming form?
4. Is Darnell Mooney draftable?
5. Can Cole Kmet be a top-16 TE?
The best Bear QB season ever? Journeyman Erik Kramer's 26 years ago. His 3,838/29/10 season was unmatched because no Bear QB has ever thrown for 4,000+ yards, and none have thrown 30+ TDs. Every other current NFL franchise (I looked up each one) has had at least one 4,000+ yard QB season and at least one 30+ TD season. And that pretty much sums up the illustrious history of Chicago quarterbacks. (And for those who are wondering, Cleveland barely missed out on joining Chicago; Brian Sipe's 4,132/30 line in 1980 was the only time a Brown hit 4,000 or 30.)
Anyway, the Mitch Trubisky experiment failed miserably. If you're keeping score at home, the franchise netted a loss of two third-round picks to snag a "franchise" QB who amassed 72 touchdowns in 50 starts. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, CMC, Marshon Lattimore, and other big producers were drafted shortly after Trubisky. And that pretty much sums up the illustrious history of Chicago drafts.
Seriously though, these things happen. GMs mess up. It's just that this team wasted a golden opportunity to capitalize on a stout defense and fairly strong running game. Mahomes or Watson might have won them a Super Bowl by now. Instead, the team will start over with the seemingly safer Justin Fields. Despite his QB-20 ADP, Fields is the real deal. Trubisky was at his best when he scampered for 421 yards in his 2018 sophomore campaign, averaging the 11th most QB fantasy points per-game. Surely Fields can crack the top 12 if he can beat out Andy Dalton.
David Montgomery was my favorite bargain RB last summer, and I urged readers many times to reach for him. He's one of the most talented backs in the game, and simply needed more opportunities, particularly in the second half (when he was largely on the sidelines in 2019). Tarik Cohen's injury gave Montgomery the true bellcow opportunity he deserved. I like betting on talent, even if the opportunity isn't there. So despite Cohen's presence, I'll happily draft Montgomery at his RB-17 ADP. And Cohen is a wait-and-see option at his RB-49 ADP, as his recovery this month will dictate whether he can resume his customary RB3 role. Of course, the arrival of Damien Williams (RB-59) is an issue to watch. He or Cohen will be on the flex radar to start the season, though I easily prefer a healthy Cohen.
Allen Robinson has four 150+ target seasons and could be headed for #5. Playing for a long-term contract, Robinson (WR-11 ADP) should find more scoring opportunities with Fields at the helm. He has only 23 touchdowns in his 62 games since the start of the 2016 season. He's left fantasy points on the table through almost no fault of his own. He's a solid investment at his current price. Darnell Mooney is primed for an uptick in catches, yards, and scores; his unimaginative WR-49 ADP (he was last year's 49th best fantasy WR) is more floor than ceiling--though I can't see him crushing his ADP like some other WR4s and 5s. The remaining options are uninspiring. Sixth-round rookie Dazz Newsome (WR-105), when healthy, will compete against relatively lacking receivers like Marquise Goodwin (WR-130), Damiere Byrd (WR-137), and maybe Justin Hardy (no ADP). This collection of mediocrity is one reason why I like Mooney more than the fantasy universe.
Finally, Jimmy Graham's modest 2020 turnaround will be short-lived. Cole Kmet (TE-25) is much better than Graham (TE-30), despite their nearly identical ADPs. Buy Kmet in 16-team and dynasty leagues as a nothing-to-lose future star with a shot at leaving Graham in the dust by midseason. ---
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