Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Tua Tagovailoa be a top-18 QB?
2. Is Myles Gaskin a reliable RB2?
3. Can Will Fuller be a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Will Jaylen Waddle be a WR4+?
5. Is Mike Gesicki a top-10 TE?
There's a right time and a wrong time to see what you have in your rookie quarterback. We'll never know for sure if Miami blew their best shot at their first postseason win in 20 years. Their schedule certainly won't get any easier this year (only one of the 10 wins last year came against a playoff team). What we do know is that this franchise decided midseason that Tua Tagovailoa was their QB of the future--or at least, that Ryan Fitzpatrick no longer fit into their future. In the win-loss column, Tua prevailed (though Fitz gets credit for his strong play in relief of Tua in Week 16's must-win comeback). So barring a sudden trade, it's Tua's offense. While he could make a year-2 leap, what's more likely is that he settles into back-end QB2 production, making his QB-21 ADP both acceptable and uninspiring.
Myles Gaskin was far better than I ever anticipated, helping some of you secure QB1/2 production on the cheap. The former seventh-rounder will be trendy once again at his RB-21 ADP. But not so fast, folks. New England's defense should be much improved (two tougher games than last year), their out-of-conference schedule will be tougher, and Gaskin fared worse when Tua was on the field vs. when Fitz was manning the controls. If Tua is better than expected (and if the offense is less conservative), Gaskin probably will be better, too. But I don't trust him in the top 16, making him a bit of a stretch at 21. Salvon Ahmed (RB-65), Malcolm Brown (RB-84), and potential Jordan-Howard-lite rookie Gerrid Doaks (RB-87) will compete for third-down, goal-line, and handcuff duties.
It's unusual for two WR teammates to be co-starters one season and then afterthoughts the following season . . . while still on the same team . . . and while still in their prime. But that's the story with DeVante Parker (WR-52) and Preston Williams (WR-131). Injuries have marred Williams' once seemingly promising trajectory, while motivation and/or injuries have contributed to Parker no longer being an offensive centerpiece. The Parker situation is odd. Miami invested $21.5 million in him at the tail end of the 2019 season. He was expected to be a mainstay through the 2023 campaign. So they've effectively burned $21.5 million (and up to $40 million based on the contract value) on a guy who probably never again will eclipse 60 catches or 800 yards in a Dolphins uniform. That leaves newly acquired Will Fuller (WR-37) and first-round rookie Jaylen Waddle (WR-45). It's been five years since Fuller played more than five games, and he's already hurt. I'm taking odds on Fuller, Parker, and Williams playing all 16 games. Currently thinking 7,000-to-1. That leaves Waddle: paired with his college QB, he has the best shot at claiming the #1 role, making him the most draftable of the group.
Mike Gesicki (TE-12 ADP) could go either way this season. A deeper wideout corps makes him a less reliable TE1 than his fairly strong 2020 numbers suggest. For a sizable chunk of last year he was competing for targets against Isaiah Ford, Jakeem Grant, and Lynn Bowden Jr. If even two of Miami's top-four wideouts can regularly take the field, Gesicki will be a regression candidate. He's a pretty safe top-14 option, but will be hard-pressed to crack the top 8 again.
---
Sign up for FF4W's Annual Preseason Draft Rankings: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Engage on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W