Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Derek Carr a top-20 QB?
2. Will Josh Jacobs be a reliable RB2?
3. Can Kenyan Drake be an RB3?
4. Is Henry Ruggs a WR4+?
5. Who will be the #2 fantasy WR, and will it matter?
Are the Raiders overachieving or underachieving with Jon Gruden at the helm? During his first stint with the franchise two decades ago, his teams were 8-8 each of his first two seasons before busting through. In fact, only once in the last 26 seasons has a non-Gruden-led Raiders team--spanning 11 head coaches--posted a winning record. So maybe this is the year the Gruden magic takes hold. If the 35-36-37-year-old Rich Gannnon-led Raiders of the early 2000's could help lead them to three straight postseasons, surely Derek Carr & company can do the same.
And I don't say that sarcastically. Scoring points is not an issue; Las Vegas racked up 434 points last year after collecting only 313 the year before. Looking beyond awful ball security (eight lost fumbles last year, for example), Carr has been a deceptively solid quarterback. His numbers have gotten progressively better since hitting rock bottom in 2017. He has three straight 4,000-yard seasons, has averaged about a 69% completion rate during that span, and has been above-average on interceptions. There's no getting past the Chiefs in the AFC West, at least not for the foreseeable future. But if the defense can improve even modestly, Carr is good enough to help lead this team to a 10-6 record and a shot at the wild card. His QB-25 ADP is a ridiculous oversight. I shared similar sentiments last summer when his QB ADP was 26. And I wrote the same thing ("short-sighted silliness") the summer before that when his QB ADP was 25. Each time he's proven to be a significant bargain. This year will be no exception.
Last year Josh Jacobs took a step back after a blistering rookie campaign. Sure, he still crushed it with 1,000+ rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. But thanks to relatively muted receiving yardage (for a bellcow), he was too TD-dependent for a supposedly near-elite QB1. Despite finishing #8 in RB fantasy scoring, 10 times he scored less than 14 points, including six times with less than 10 points. Realizing they needed more in this backfield, the Raiders' brass brought in the very competent, still-in-his-prime Kenyan Drake. While Jacobs (RB-20) is expected to remain the lead back, his value reinforces concerns about his weekly reliability. Drake (RB-37) is a nothing-to-lose 9th-round flyer: a complementary RB who would become an immediate RB2 if Jacobs went down. We'll have a better sense later this month how this tandem might split.
Meanwhile, Henry Ruggs should replace Nelson Agholor as the lead wideout. Consider that Agholor finished last year as the #34 fantasy WR, while Ruggs' current WR ADP is 48. The fantasy universe's lack of faith in Ruggs reflects their lack of faith in Carr. Neither makes sense. Ruggs is a great bet to crack the top 35 and should be drafted ahead of his ADP, period. Veteran John Brown (WR-63), Bryan Edwards (WR-93), and Hunter Renfrow (WR-106) will jockey for targets, with Renfrow as the odd man out (for now). Edwards has the most pop of the three, so best-ballers have nothing to lose taking him at the very end. Brown is a fascinating player to dissect. His per-game numbers the last two years in Buffalo would have him crushing his ADP this year. The question is whether he'll get enough targets. Although his ceiling isn't as high as Edwards', his floor should make him a bargain regardless.
Remember Foster Moreau? The 2019 fourth-rounder was my pick to eventually take over the starting tight-end job. At that time, Darren Waller had wallowed in anonymity for four years. "He's had his chance to break out," I thought. I thought wrong. Waller is one Travis Kelce injury or regression away from joining elite company as fantasy's #1 TE. Kelce has held that spot five straight seasons. Rob Gronkowski (three times) and Jimmy Graham (twice) led the way the previous five years. The sky is the limit for the former sixth-round pick.
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