Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Baker Mayfield be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Nick Chubb a top-8 RB?
3. Will Kareem Hunt be a weekly starter?
4. Can Odell Beckham, Jr. be a WR2?
5. Is Jarvis Landry a top-40 WR?
I like Baker Mayfield when he's not hyped up as a sky-high talent. In the summer of 2019 I warned against his ridiculous QB-5 ADP. Most experts locked him in as an elite or near-elite option based off of some big 2018 performances against some puff defenses. Now sitting on a QB-16 ADP, he's priced about right. It's hard to imagine him flopping out of the top 20. So in two-QB leagues you're getting a reliable upper-mid QB2 with strong top 10-12 potential if things break right.
Possibly the best 1-2 RB punch in fantasy, Nick Chubb (RB-8) and Kareem Hunt (RB-22) don't need to be overdiscussed. We know what they can do. Last year I hyped Hunt (RB-29) as the better bargain and wrote, "don't be surprised if Hunt's more productive," pointing to Hunt's much better goal-line conversion rate: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2020/08/nick-chubb-and-kareem-hunt.html. Of course, Chubb missed four more games than Hunt, so the former remains the obvious #1. But is still only 25 (turning 26 in a few days) and is a fantastic bet to once again outperform expectations.
Remember when people were saying Cleveland had a loaded receiver corps? It's hard to overstate just how precicitously Odell Beckham, Jr.'s career has plummeted. Four years ago he was 24 years old and on pace for his fourth straight 90/1,200/10 season. He was headed for all-time greatness. Then . . . well, now he's 28 and clinging to weekly fantasy relevance. Yet his WR-27 ADP seems like an overreaction. Granted, he has't been able to stay healthy as much as the average wideout, and the Browns are a run-friendly team. But this team isn't deep at wideout, and OBJ only needs to play like Cole Beasley last year to meet expectations. I'd reach for him a few spots earlier. The opportunities might not be there, but I usually bet on talent, because talent usually comes through. Elsewhere, Jarvis Landry (WR-43) is a fantastic bet to rebound from his off 2020 effort; I'm placing him in the top 36. There's no other wideout on this team that I'd want to roster.
At tight end, the once great Austin Hooper (TE-22) was an afterthought in his first Browns campaign. The team handed him $23 million guaranteed to catch 3.5 balls per game? There's a lot of untapped potential here, and Cleveland needs to get more out of him if they want to elevate this offense. I've got him in the top 18. Meanwhile, the once-promising David Njoku (TE-40) is past due for a change of scenery, and should remain on radars in case he winds up on a TE-needy team.
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