Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Kirk Cousins be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Dalvin Cook a near-automatic elite RB?
3. Will Justin Jefferson be a top-8 WR?
4. Is Adam Thielen a WR2?
5. Is Irv Smith a TE1?
When Washington drafted Kirk Cousins in 2012--three rounds after supposed franchise savior Robert Griffin III--they became the first team in 23 years to select two quarterbacks in the first four rounds. I was living in Washington at the time and couldn't understand their thinking. Coming off their third straight losing season, the team needed a lot more than a backup QB, especially with RGIII helming the offense for the foreseeable future. But of course, it turned out to be one of the most brilliant mistakes in recent draft history, as injuries destroyed RGIII's uber-promising career. If Washington management hadn't repeatedly botched Cousins' contract negotiations, they could have locked him in for what now looks like an insane bargain.
It's easy to hate on Cousins. He's one of the league's highest-paid QBs, yet during his tenure the Vikes are only 25-22-1 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. A couple years ago one of his all-world receivers not-so-subtly called him out for inaccurate throws, and the other left town. Yet whatever you say about him, he's one of the most consistently "good" QBs in fantasy, averaging 16-19 points in each of the last six years. Since becoming an every-week starter in 2015, 172 passing TDs and only 65 interceptions in 95 games--while adding 16 more scores on the ground. And every summer it seems he's undervalued. Last year his preseason QB ADP was 21, vs. a #11 finish. In 2019 his ADP was 19 vs. a #15 finish. This year's QB-17 ADP seems like an afterthought. He'll probably never be a top-6 option. But he's a great get if you want a steady performer with top-12 potential.
You know my concerns about Dalvin Cook (RB-2). Or maybe you don't. Yes, I'm concerned. Because since the start of 16-game regular seasons in 1978, 73% of running backs who earned 350+ touches scored fewer fantasy points the next year, thanks in part to averaging two fewer games played (usually because of injuries). These 168 RBs averaged 308.7 points during their 350+ touch campaigns, but only 238.2 the following year. Now, Cook earned only 356 touches last year, so he only barely cracks this ceiling. Maybe he'll be an exception to the rule. But why risk it? Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor are ranked 2-4 spots lower, yet I view them as more reliable. Call me out in December if I'm wrong. In the meantime, I'll stand by the numbers. Meanwhile, Alexander Mattison (RB-47) was the first handcuff I drafted last summer (a round before snagging Tony Pollard), and he remains a must-draft RB in nearly every league.
I hyped Justin Jefferson big-time last summer here and on Twitter. His WR-44 ADP was ridiculous. As I wrote last July 18, "I really, really want Jefferson at that price." He put together one of the greatest rookie wideout campaigns in NFL history. Now the 2020 first-rounder is looking like a fantasy second-rounder. His WR-8 ADP is hard to knock. And soon-to-be 31-year-old Adam Thielen will be this team's clear #2 for the first time in years. His WR-19 makes sense. He's more likely to eclipse 1,000 yards than to hit double-digit TDs again. Either way, back-end WR2 numbers seem about right. And the recent signing of Dede Westbrook (no ADP) could give Minnesota its first playmaking #3 wideout in a long time. Bisi Johnson (no ADP) won't be fantasy relevant even if he somehow wins the #3 job.
And Irv Smith is finally "the guy" at the TE spot. Yet his TE-11 ADP seems closer to a ceiling than a floor. One TD every six receptions isn't easily replicable. 50/550/6 seems quite possible, and 60/600/7 could be his 2021 peak. So I see him finishing around 9th-13th.
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