Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will start the most games at QB, and will it matter?
2. Can David Johnson be an RB2?
3. Is Phillip Lindsay draftable?
4. Will Brandin Cooks be a reliable WR3+?
5. Is Nico Collins draftable in deep leagues?
Teams rise and fall. But perhaps no fall has been more precipitous and self-inflicted as the Texans'. A little over 18th months ago they led the Chiefs 24-0 in a divisional playoff game. Close out K.C., and only the 9-7 Titans would have stood in the way of their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Houston had won six divisional titles in their previous nine years, yet had never made it to the conference title game. And that trend continued as the Chiefs outscored them 51-7. Then in the offseason, DeAndre Hopkins departed in one of the most lopsided big-name trades in years. And the reeling Texans went 4-12.
Now Deshaun Watson's season is in jeopardy due to more than 20 alleged sexual assaults. (Of course, Watson's *career* should be in jeopardy, but the NFL obviously has a poor track record on that front.) It's almost inconceivable that he will play another snap in Houston, even if he escapes legal consequences. That leaves perennial placeholder Tyrod Taylor (QB-41) as the likely Week 1 starter. Taylor has lost two starting jobs to franchise QBs due to injuries--though in fairness, the injuries only hastened his inevitable benching. Since this could/should be another lost season for Houston, we should expect third-round rookie Davis Mills (no ADP) to eventually get some starts. This team is probably 3-4 years away from relevance, depending partly on how much they can get for Watson on the open market.
David Johnson was never going to thrive after swapping places with an all-world receiver like Hopkins. He was serviceable when healthy, posting the 16th most RB fantasy points per game. But as I've been writing on this blog for each of the past four years, 2016 was a fluke. Like a one-hit-wonder band that parlays that song into a world tour, Johnson has gotten a lot of mileage out of that 2,000+ yard, 20-TD campaign. He'll turn 30 in December and will probably be a cheap veteran backup next year. This year, his RB-30 ADP is more ceiling than floor, as I don't see how he'd crack the top 25, no thanks to a weak offense led by a weak QB and a weak offensive line. Phillip Lindsay (RB-50), Mark Ingram (RB-62), and/or Rex Burkhead (RB-101) will push for touches. There's buzz that Ingram could be the odd man out. Lindsay probably won't get enough touches to be draftable. And at 31, Burkhead is a poor man's Duke Johnson. What a mess.
In any other season, Houston's wide receivers would be a concern. But relatively speaking, they're a bright spot. The continually underappreciated Brandin Cooks is a nice get at his WR-36 ADP price tag. Playing from behind early and often, he'll line up next to some combination of Nico Collins (WR-83), Keke Coutee (WR-87), and Randall Cobb (WR-117). Collins is the clear value play here, as his upside crushes Coutee's and Cobb's. Collins is one of those magical, final-round best-ball picks that will cause opposing managers to wince in envy. His ADP should be at least 25 points better.
Which Houston tight end's overall ADP is better than Collins'? Jordan Akins. How crazy is that. Akins (TE-32) is undraftable unless you play in the world's only TE-only fantasy league (that actually sounds kinda fun, unless you pick at the end of the first round). Ryan Izzo (no ADP) could cut into Akins' already minimal ceiling.