Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matt Ryan a QB1?
2. Will Mike Davis be a reliable weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Calvin Ridley a top-3 WR?
4. Can Russell Gage be a serviceable WR4?
5. Is Kyle Pitts a top-4 TE?
After 13 NFL seasons, Matt Ryan's all-time numbers are very impressive, including #9 in passing yards and #10 in passing TDs. But is he an all-time great? Despite throwing to 1-2 elite receivers each season throughout his career (as well as some fantastic tight ends), he's enjoyed perhaps only two dominant seasons. Fantasy-wise, he often leaves managers wanting and/or expecting more. His QB-15 ADP reflects this pervasive doubt. He's someone many people *want* to draft, but he's not necessarily someone they want to depend on. And that's why I like him at his current value. Despite some early buzz, this year the Falcons opted not to draft his eventual replacement. But they do have an out after this season if they want to cut him. So this is somewhat of a prove-it season, and Ryan's coming off his second-worst per-game fantasy output in the past five years--and still finished 12th overall. He's coming off the board in double-digit rounds. I'd happily snag him after 12 QBs are off the board. He's a bargain.
As expected, the Todd Gurley experiment did not pan out. Newly signed Mike Davis was a fantasy hero last season. Over the summer I warned folks about Christian McCaffrey's obscenely high 2019 usage, and that Davis was one of the best handcuffs to roster. I took my own advice (as I often do) and rode him to the postseason as a fairly reliable RB2. But I'm not sentimental, and you shouldn't be either. Davis's RB-24 ADP is about right for now. Yes, he could crack the top 20 again if things break just right. But I don't see him building off of last year's success. And if he fails to impress early (as he sometimes did in Carolina), I wouldn't be surprised if the team looks elsewhere before the trade deadline. Qadree Ollison (RB-93) is the most likely handcuff, while rookie Javian Hawkins (RB-68) will be a more situational talent, likely more valuable on the field than in fantasy.
It took Julio Jones four seasons to overtake Roddy White. Calvin Ridley needed only three to overtake Julio. It's hard to overestimate Ridley (WR-6) heading into his age-26 campaign. Last year I pushed the strangely undervalued Davante Adams as a top-2 WR. I view Ridley similarly. Although he's recovering from foot surgery, it would be a minor shock if he weren't ready to roll Week 1. Draft him as a top-3 wideout. Meanwhile, Russell Gage (WR-58) is a fantastic flyer as the semi-dependable #2 WR. He's probably not talented enough to break out, but is in a perfect spot to crack the top 45. And journeyman Cordarrelle Patterson (WR-86) will compete with the low-ceiling Olamide Zaccheaus (WR-105) for WR5-ceiling scraps.
The biggest wild card in the receiver corps is highly touted rookie Kyle Pitts. Is his TE-5 ADP too aggressive, or is he destined to become Matt Ryan's #2 target, almost guaranteeing sky-high production? For context, Austin Hooper was the #6 fantasy TE in 2018 despite playing alongside Julio and Ridley. So yes, Pitts deserves his ranking, while Hayden Hurst (TE-29) is a rare backup TE worth closely tracking. This is one of those seasons where drafting Ridley at the end of the first round, Pitts at his fifth-round price, and Ryan in the 10th could give you key pieces for a championship roster.