Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will win the starting QB job, and will it matter?
2. Can Javonte Williams become the starting RB?
3. Will Melvin Gordon be a top-30 RB?
4. Is Courtland Sutton the #1 WR, or could Jerry Jeudy overtake him?
5. Is Noah Fant a top-8 TE?
In recent years I've been more vocal about GM John Elway's decision making than about any other GM. Even if we ignore his ridiculously unnecessary overpayment of Melvin Gordon, his post-Peyton-Manning track record of QB selections since 2016 has been, arguably, the worst in the league (at least the Jets finally drafted someone capable this year). Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, and Joe Flacco were never going to be the answer. And 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock was so middling last year that the team added another long-overrated QB, Teddy Bridgewater, to compete for the starting job. Neither guy is among the first 30 QBs coming off the board. It's been seven years--yes, seven years--since a Denver QB threw 20+ TD passes. It would be a minor miracle if someone does it this year.
Back to Melvin Gordon: you heard my repeated warnings last summer. He was a disappointment until turning it on in the final five weeks, so kudos to those who stuck with him. The problem is this team doesn't score enough, and Phillip Lindsay (when healthy) is a constant threat for 10+ touches. Lindsay is gone, but rookie Javonte Williams is here to stay, and now the Broncos have the "luxury" of limiting the reps of one of the league's highest-paid backs. In other words, it's entirely conceivable that Williams (RB-27) takes the 1A role over Gordon (RB-29), with Mike Boone (RB-98) or Royce Freeman (RB-90) vying for backup handcuff status. Since I generally prefer youth over experience (when talent is comparable), and since I've viewed Gordon as overrated for a long time, I like Williams as this year's D'Andre Swift; once he gets acclimated to the NFL, he should begin to take the lead role.
Lock's or Bridgewater's middling success hinges largely on a talented and youthful receiving corps. Courtland Sutton's (WR-31) Week 2 ACL tear is a minor yellow flag. The bigger yellow is that during his breakout 2019 campaign (72/1,112/6), his main competition for targets (besides Denver's backfield) were Emmanuel Sanders, DaeSean Hamilton, and rookie Noah Fant. His WR-31 ADP presumes he'll be the team's #1 wideout. But I don't think it's that obvious. Jerry Jeudy (WR-39) looked stellar at times, and should only improve in year #2, especially if opposing #1 cornerbacks cover Sutton. Jeudy is the better value play. Meanwhile, K.J. Hamler (WR-121) or Tim Patrick (WR-98) will be fantasy-relevant if Sutton or Jeudy are hurt.
And Fant is a terrific TE in a tough situation. His TE-8 ADP aligns with his #8 performance last season. His ceiling is probably as low as any TE1. With the receiving corps healthy and with the backfield improved, he probably won't reach last year's 93 targets. I wouldn't reach for him at his price tag.