Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jared Goff a top-24 QB?
2. Can D'Andre Swift be a reliable RB2?
3. Will Jamaal Williams make an impact?
4. Who will be the #1 wideout, and will it matter?
5. Is T.J. Hockenson a top-4 TE?
Few fantasy QBs are more enigmatic than Jared Goff, whose first two full seasons in the league placed him in long-term dynasty conversations, as he finished 12th (2017) and 7th (2018) at his position. Then he endured a slight-but-meaningful regression in 2019 (13th best QB) before plummeting in 2020 (19th). Now enjoying new digs in Detroit, Goff remains a huge question mark. The Lions passed on drafting his immediate heir, instead beefing up their offensive line. So that's a win-win for Goff, whose QB-30 ADP suggests he's god-awful.
But not so fast. For the past several years he's been expected to help lead his team deep into the playoffs. This season, for the first time since his rookie campaign, there are no such expectations. The Lions gave up the most points in the NFL in 2020. There won't be much interest in running the ball in the second half. As relatively weak as Goff's receiving corps is, he will throw it enough to muster 3,500/20 conservatively, which will keep him in the QB2 conversation.
In my draft last year I made a 6th-round decision that some of you (deservedly at the time) laughed at. From my draft rundown column: "I reached for D'Andre Swift. Yes, D'Andre Swift. But I rationalized it as taking a talented rookie who should improve as the year goes on." I passed on the seemingly more promising J.K. Dobbins and the "safer" Mark Ingram, as well as AP and Kerryon Johnson, both of whom started the season above Swift on the depth chart. But drafting is sometimes as much about future value as it is about present value, and I believed in Swift more than anyone else left on the board. The problem heading into 2021 is the addition of the overrated Jamaal Williams. Williams has been getting hyped by the coaching staff, which might just be all talk. As a Swift fan, I want this talk to continue so his stock will drop. If for no other reason, buy Swift at his RB-16 ADP and bet on 55+ receptions, and view Williams (RB-43) as a medium-risk / minimal-reward option. Rookie Jermar Jefferson (RB-96) is a decent bet to become the primary handcuff at some point.
At wideout, what a mess. Breshad Perriman (WR-76) is a great best-ball play as a weekly hit-or-miss receiver catching passes thrown by quite possibly (and sadly) the best starting QB he's ever played with. Fellow journeyman Tyrell Williams (WR-78) won't rekindle his 2016 breakout but is worth tracking in case his rapport with Goff turns him into a #1. And fourth-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR-67) could lead Detroit WRs in receptions--if he can hold off Quintez Cephus (WR-103). At the moment, I can say two things unequivocally: (1) no one knows how this corps will shake out, and (2) barring massive injuries, at least one of these guys will comfortably outperform expectations. One of them will crack 600/4, and quite likely at least two of them. We've seen Perriman and Williams in action. Perriman's ceiling is higher, and his floor is lower. St. Brown is the wild card. My money is on Perriman to be the best value of the three.
Finally, it's hard not to see T.J. Hockenson taking another step forward this year. His TE-6 ADP is probably too conservative. He finished at #5 last season with a 67/723/6 line. Now competing for targets with lesser surrounding talent and playing from behind most weeks, he could crack 80/900/8. He's #3 on my board.