Before jumping into Day 13: Maybe it's COVID isolation, or maybe it's my wife telling me I need to get out of the house. But I just started an FF group for the Raleigh-Durham region of North Carolina. If anyone lives in the area and wants to join me sometime on a neighborhood walk to talk fantasy football, sign up for my new Cary Fantasy Football Talking / Leisurely Walking Group:
https://www.meetup.com/cary-fantasy-football-leisurely-walking-group/
This is not a joke. But if there are no takers, it will become a joke.
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1. Who will win the QB starting job, and can he be a top-14 option?
2. Is Damien Harris a weekly RB3/flex option?
3. Is Nelson Agholor draftable?
4. Will Jakobi Meyers build off of his 2019 breakout?
5. Can Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith be a top-10 TE?
I've never written about New England this early. These write-ups generally go in reverse order of the previous season's standings, alternating among the divisions, and culminating with the two conference champions and two runner-ups. So what happened to the Patriots exactly? Can we finally answer the question, "Who was more valuable to this franchise: Bill Belichick or Tom Brady?" Well, it's not that simple, at least from where I'm sitting. Some guys from the vaunted 2019 Patriots D sat out in 2020 due to COVID. In fact, an incredible 12% of all NFL players who opted out last season were Patriots. So you combine that with a clear downgrade at QB and highly competitive Bills and Dolphins squads (New England went a combined 1-3 against them), and it's easy to see why this was Belichick's first losing season since his 2000 debut campaign.
That said, there are major question marks for this team entering 2021, and most have significant fantasy implications. It begins with Cam Newton (QB-31 ADP), who was both better than some had expected and worse than some had hoped. His 17.4 fantasy points per game put him inches ahead of Joe Burrow and 0.1 points behind Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. His top two receivers were Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd, followed by the mostly injured Julian Edelman and let's-stop-calling-Belichick-a-GM-genius N'Keal Harry. The team's tight ends were among the worst in the NFL. So I view Cam's top-16 QB production differently than some. He had almost no chance to succeed, and he almost single-handedly won games that a middling pocket passer probably couldn’t--for example, narrow wins in weeks 9 and 10 against the Jets and Ravens, when Cam averaged above-75% completion rates while collecting four touchdowns (including three on the ground) and zero turnovers.
And yet (though expectedly), the Pats drafted Mac Jones (QB-37 ADP) with the 15th overall pick. Jones is a very different kind of quarterback. August should be fascinating as these two battle it out: Mac for a shot at becoming a franchise quarterback for the equivalent of NFL royalty, and Cam for a shot at redemption. As a human being, I'm rooting for Cam to get his shot and throw to an improved receiving corps. But this is truly a toss-up choice in best-ball and two-QB fantasy drafts.
Heading into this year's NFL draft, New England had a one-two punch of Damien Harris (RB-33 ADP) and Sony Michel (RB-64). Neither do much in the passing game, but that's not important in an offense that includes James White (RB-52) (364 catches in in six mostly full seasons). Then the team had to reach for Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-81) in the fourth round. Maybe "reach" is unfair. He could have replaced Michel and given Belichick a relatively cheap bulldozer for the next few years. But "reach" is fair when you consider all of the red flags attached to him. As of writing this, he's on the non-football injury list, so the depth chart is in a bit of a holding pattern until/unless Stevenson returns in time to make an impact early this season. For now, White is the best bargain of the group, assuming he continues collecting 3-4 receptions per contest. And the #1 job is Harris's to lose--and given Belichick's track record for swapping out RBs, there's no guarantee Harris keeps it.
As alluded to earlier, the Patriots upgraded at wide receiver, though it's all relative. Jakobi Meyers (WR-76) is no longer the team's #1, so that's a step in the right direction. San Francisco transplant Kendrick Bourne (WR-102) is a slight improvement over Damiere Byrd. Nelson Agholor (WR-60) is a "prized" offseason acquisition, which he is considering how bad this receiving corps was last year, but still . . . And N'Keal Harry (WR-133) wanted out of New England a few weeks ago, so that's what you want in a #4 wideout: a painfully underperforming former first-rounder who's not good enough to start on any team, as evidenced by his inability to start for the 2021 Patriots. We could see some DNPs in his future. All told, Agholor and Meyers have the most value, and one should finish in the top 45.
And this team has gone from having zero worthwhile TEs to two. An embarrassment of riches. Hunter Henry (TE-10) and Jonnu Smith (TE-15) are good bets to outscore most New England wideouts. Not knowing how the QB situation will shake out, it's hard to know if either of these guys are bargains. For example, if Cam's starting, Henry and Jonnu would be less relevant near the goal-line. I don't see either tight end exceeding 600 yards, so it'll come down to targets and TDs. Right now I wouldn't reach for either.
https://www.meetup.com/cary-fantasy-football-leisurely-walking-group/
This is not a joke. But if there are no takers, it will become a joke.
---
Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will win the QB starting job, and can he be a top-14 option?
2. Is Damien Harris a weekly RB3/flex option?
3. Is Nelson Agholor draftable?
4. Will Jakobi Meyers build off of his 2019 breakout?
5. Can Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith be a top-10 TE?
I've never written about New England this early. These write-ups generally go in reverse order of the previous season's standings, alternating among the divisions, and culminating with the two conference champions and two runner-ups. So what happened to the Patriots exactly? Can we finally answer the question, "Who was more valuable to this franchise: Bill Belichick or Tom Brady?" Well, it's not that simple, at least from where I'm sitting. Some guys from the vaunted 2019 Patriots D sat out in 2020 due to COVID. In fact, an incredible 12% of all NFL players who opted out last season were Patriots. So you combine that with a clear downgrade at QB and highly competitive Bills and Dolphins squads (New England went a combined 1-3 against them), and it's easy to see why this was Belichick's first losing season since his 2000 debut campaign.
That said, there are major question marks for this team entering 2021, and most have significant fantasy implications. It begins with Cam Newton (QB-31 ADP), who was both better than some had expected and worse than some had hoped. His 17.4 fantasy points per game put him inches ahead of Joe Burrow and 0.1 points behind Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. His top two receivers were Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd, followed by the mostly injured Julian Edelman and let's-stop-calling-Belichick-a-GM-genius N'Keal Harry. The team's tight ends were among the worst in the NFL. So I view Cam's top-16 QB production differently than some. He had almost no chance to succeed, and he almost single-handedly won games that a middling pocket passer probably couldn’t--for example, narrow wins in weeks 9 and 10 against the Jets and Ravens, when Cam averaged above-75% completion rates while collecting four touchdowns (including three on the ground) and zero turnovers.
And yet (though expectedly), the Pats drafted Mac Jones (QB-37 ADP) with the 15th overall pick. Jones is a very different kind of quarterback. August should be fascinating as these two battle it out: Mac for a shot at becoming a franchise quarterback for the equivalent of NFL royalty, and Cam for a shot at redemption. As a human being, I'm rooting for Cam to get his shot and throw to an improved receiving corps. But this is truly a toss-up choice in best-ball and two-QB fantasy drafts.
Heading into this year's NFL draft, New England had a one-two punch of Damien Harris (RB-33 ADP) and Sony Michel (RB-64). Neither do much in the passing game, but that's not important in an offense that includes James White (RB-52) (364 catches in in six mostly full seasons). Then the team had to reach for Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-81) in the fourth round. Maybe "reach" is unfair. He could have replaced Michel and given Belichick a relatively cheap bulldozer for the next few years. But "reach" is fair when you consider all of the red flags attached to him. As of writing this, he's on the non-football injury list, so the depth chart is in a bit of a holding pattern until/unless Stevenson returns in time to make an impact early this season. For now, White is the best bargain of the group, assuming he continues collecting 3-4 receptions per contest. And the #1 job is Harris's to lose--and given Belichick's track record for swapping out RBs, there's no guarantee Harris keeps it.
As alluded to earlier, the Patriots upgraded at wide receiver, though it's all relative. Jakobi Meyers (WR-76) is no longer the team's #1, so that's a step in the right direction. San Francisco transplant Kendrick Bourne (WR-102) is a slight improvement over Damiere Byrd. Nelson Agholor (WR-60) is a "prized" offseason acquisition, which he is considering how bad this receiving corps was last year, but still . . . And N'Keal Harry (WR-133) wanted out of New England a few weeks ago, so that's what you want in a #4 wideout: a painfully underperforming former first-rounder who's not good enough to start on any team, as evidenced by his inability to start for the 2021 Patriots. We could see some DNPs in his future. All told, Agholor and Meyers have the most value, and one should finish in the top 45.
And this team has gone from having zero worthwhile TEs to two. An embarrassment of riches. Hunter Henry (TE-10) and Jonnu Smith (TE-15) are good bets to outscore most New England wideouts. Not knowing how the QB situation will shake out, it's hard to know if either of these guys are bargains. For example, if Cam's starting, Henry and Jonnu would be less relevant near the goal-line. I don't see either tight end exceeding 600 yards, so it'll come down to targets and TDs. Right now I wouldn't reach for either.