Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Justin Herbert be a top-6 QB?
2. Will Austin Ekeler be an RB1?
3. Is Keenan Allen a top-8 WR?
4. Can Mike Williams finally put it all together?
5. Is Jared Cook draftable?
Justin Herbert was one of those revelations last season that people had to wonder why he wasn't named the Week 1 starter. Clearly he was NFL-ready, and if a few things had broken right, they might have been a playoff contender (seven of their nine losses were by eight points or less, and they blew multiple late-fourth-quarter leads). He'll enter his sophomore campaign with good chemistry with his top three offensive weapons and a defense that's bad enough to keep him throwing. I have no problem with his QB-6 ADP, except that he's one of about 10-12 QBs with top-6 abilities. But that's true every season. Herbert is as safe as any non-elite QB.
Austin Ekeler (RB-9) is one of the most fun guys to roster in fantasy. Who else could be 26th in RB fantasy points despite playing only 10 games and rushing for only one touchdown more than the long-retired Priest Holmes? Like Herbert, Ekeler's floor is exceptionally high. 70/700/5 through the air is entirely possible, and 100/500/3 on the ground (at minimum) should be expected. Meanwhile, Joshua Kelley (RB-73), Justin Jackson (RB-74), and sixth-round rookie Larry Rountree (RB-87) will compete for backup duties. Jackson is shaping up as the odd man out, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself in a Rams uniform or on some other team that needs an experienced, capable back.
Last summer I pushed readers to buy Keenan Allen with confidence at his bizarre WR-20 ADP. Even if Tyrod Taylor hampered his upside in the short term, eventually he'd get his numbers as the team's clear-cut #1 receiver. The fantasy universe remains surprisingly a bit wary of Keenan, giving him a WR-10 ADP. Hunter Henry's departure only makes Keenan more valuable. He was last season's sixth-highest-scoring WR per game and is still in his prime. There's no logical reason why he can't be a top-8 option, and top-4 is realistic. Meanwhile, former first-round Mike Williams keeps underdelivering every year, at least based on universal projections. So I love his basement-level WR-53 ADP. He's too talented to be any worse, and is capable of putting it all together and launching into the top 30. He'll be on my must-draft list at his current price. Third-round rookie Josh Palmer (WR-80) and Jalen Guyton (WR-127) will compete for five fantasy points a game.
Exit Henry. Enter Jared Cook (TE-19). Cook is deceptively TD-dependent, and so in a new offense it's hard to know whether he'll earn the red-zone looks he's accustomed to. As his price tag suggests, no one should feel thrilled drafting Cook. He's a 34-year-old placeholder.