Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Sam Darnold have a career year?
2. Should CMC be the #1 overall pick?
3. Is D.J. Moore the team's #1 fantasy receiver?
4. Will Robby Anderson replicate his 2020 WR2 campaign?
5. Can Terrace Marshall be fantasy-relevant?
Last summer I made the unpopular decision of warning folks not to trust Christian McCaffrey. As most of you know, opinions are worthless if they're not backed up with evidence. Not that evidence predicts the future. But if you're like me and continually play the percentages, evidence improves your odds.
About two years ago I decided to research a theory I'd had for years--something I'd based many opinions on. But I wanted to be able to back it up. So I researched every running back in the 16-game NFL era who'd ever earned 350+ or 400+ touches in a season (minus strike years and replacement-player years), and then compared their stats to their stats the following season. The results were indisputable: If you draft an RB coming off a monster-workload season, he's highly likely to regress and/or miss games due to injury. This doesn't mean every RB regresses (LaDainian Tomlinson was among a handful of exceptions). But again, if you're playing the percentages like I do, you can't in good conscience draft these guys and think they'll be fine. And yes, this means Derrick Henry (RB-3 ADP) and Dalvin Cook (RB-2) have yellowish-red flags that no one's really talking about, but should be.
I hit some and I miss some on this site. But my CMC prediction (outlined fully here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2020/08/christian-mccaffrey.html) typifies what FF4W is about--that just because everyone zigs, it doesn't mean we should zig too. We have to be smarter than the herd. We have to play by our rules, not theirs. There's nothing embarrassing about going against the grain. What's more embarrassing is knowing we *should* go against the grain, and instead doing what we're *supposed* to do.
The 2021 version of CMC (RB-1 ADP) is clearly different than the 2020 version. He's obviously everything one would want in a #1 pick: still in his prime (25 years old), seemingly healthy, and heavily utilized whether his team is winning or losing. The once-trendy Reggie Bonnafon (no ADP) lost out to handcuff Mike Davis last year, and this year he'll be no better than the #3 once again, as Carolina drafted Chubba Hubbard (RB-56) in the fourth round. Hubbard is your typical rookie handcuff: too many unknowns to gauge whether he'll be ready to step up if CMC goes down.
At QB, this franchise is pinning its hopes on former #3 overall pick Sam Darnold. Darnold has struggled for many reasons, including not being able to stay healthy (10 missed games in three years) and playing on a team with severe talent deficits. In Carolina he'll enjoy upgrades at key positions and should comfortably outperform his QB-30 ADP--a low enough ranking to suggest the fantasy universe doesn't trust his arm or his health. I think the change of scenery and coaching staff will help him, and he'll be a steady contributor in two-QB leagues with an outside shot at regular streamability. If Teddy Bridgewater could muster the 23rd most QB fantasy points playing mostly without CMC, it's easy to see how Darnold could even crack the top 18 if things break right.
Last summer I pushed the almost universally undrafted Robby Anderson, and he exceeded even my lofty expectations by finishing in the top 20. Now he's reuniting with his former QB teammate, and inexplicably his WR ADP is stuck at 34. I get that the Panthers drafted Terrace Marshall (WR-73) as a potentially immediate-impact performer (though this is already a fairly crowded offense). And I get that D.J. Moore (WR-23) has an even higher ceiling than what we've seen. But last year's 34th best fantasy WR was Nelson Agholor. Russell Gage was #37. Anderson was #8 in the league in targets and should continue to be a threat on nearly every drive. While all three receivers might be bargains if Darnold takes a step forward. I see Anderson as no worse than a co-#1, while Marshall is a must-draft in very deep leagues that can stash high-upside talent.
The tight end situation is a crapshoot, with newly signed Dan Arnold (TE-40) hoping to hear plenty of "Darnold to Arnold" chants. Undrafted 24-year-old Giovanni Ricci (TE-33) is somehow going ahead of him in drafts, while 2020 semi-starter Ian Thomas is completely off the ADP grid. We should have more clarity in August. For now, there are clearly better options out there.
