Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Trevor Lawrence be a top-14 QB?
2. Is James Robinson an RB1?
3. Can Carlos Hyde or Travis Etienne be relevant?
4. Is D.J. Chark the team's #1 wideout?
5. Can Laviska Shenault or Marvin Jones be WR4+'s?
Before getting to Trevor Lawrence: If sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew hadn't been so shockingly capable in 2019, his 2020 numbers would have been just as shocking. On a per-game basis, Minshew remained steady or improved in most major offensive categories despite throwing to a sub-par receiving corps that leaned a little too much on Keelan Cole and much too much on Chris Conley and post-prime pass-catching RB Chris Thompson. In deep leagues, Minshew slots in as one of fantasy's best backup QBs.
OK, that needed to be stated, but enough about Minshew. The Jags' new franchise QB is Lawrence. As of writing this, the team hasn't named a starter. But we all know if Lawrence isn't starting Week 1, there's something seriously wrong. The sooner he can get on the field, the sooner he can acclimate to the NFL, and the sooner Jacksonville can strive for the respectability they oh-so-briefly enjoyed with Blake Bortles (that's my first and final Lawrence-Bortles comparison). The rookie's QB ADP is 14, meaning he's hovering close to QB1 territory. Quarterback has been a very deep fantasy position for several years, so I don't see an urgent need to reach for him there when there are cheap QB points to be found several rounds later--including doubling up on the Saints' tandem (Taysom Hill: QB-27 / Jameis Winston: QB-28) and hoping one claims the full-time starting job.
As with many rookie QBs, Lawrence's success will hinge in part on the continued development of 2020 breakout RB James Robinson. I thought too little of Robinson last summer, and he proved me very wrong. But hear me out: the fairly slow undrafted rookie was coming off a 364-carry season his senior year at Illinois State. His 289 touches last year are nowhere close to a yellow flag, but 995 in the past three seasons are. He also coughed it up three times (losing one) and was healthy for only 14 games. Despite his solid RB1 performance last year, Robinson is a strong regression risk and should finish outside the 16. Of course, he could be considerably worse if either Carlos Hyde or rookie Travis Etienne earn meaningful snaps.
At wideout, D.J. Chark (WR-32) is coming off a disappointing year, averaging 3.3 fewer fantasy points per contest. He's an easy rebound candidate. The question is, how big a rebound with Laviska Shenault (WR-46) and Marvin Jones (WR-51) collaborating in a passing attack that just might end up in the league's bottom half (depending on how quickly Lawrence adjusts). Shenault is the value pick here. While we know what Jones can do, earning another triple-digit-target season seems like a longshot. Shenault looked great as a rookie in a tough situation and should improve his numbers in year #2.
In the history of fantasy football, few TE corps are as collectively poor as this group, as evidenced by the ascension of Tim Tebow (TE-27). Yes, anything can happen. Tebow could actually poach a few TDs in September and October and earn some streaming love. But realistically, this is a grouping to avoid.