If you're reading this, you either have something riding on today's games, or you simply enjoy reading a little more fantasy content. If you're in the former camp, good luck, and reach out if you have questions before the opening kickoffs. Otherwise, here's my final fantasy recap of the season, focusing on the NFC West. Tomorrow I'll write my final post of the season, and then will pick back up next summer.
SEAHAWKS -- On July 22 I shared the obvious--that Russell Wilson was priced right at his QB-5 ADP. He's currently 6th. I also wrote that "I love Carson at his understated RB-18 ADP." He's currently 17th despite missing four games and is #12 in points per game. And I disagreed sharply with the consensus view that Carlos Hyde (RB-60) and Rashaad Penny (RB-64) were essentially equal: "However--and this could have huge implications--Hyde somehow might be one of the top handcuffs out there. . . . That leaves Hyde as a sneaky bargain who could be an instant RB2 if Carson goes down." Hyde has flashed when given the opportunity, giving some RB-needy managers a few startable performances.
At wideout, I viewed D.K. Metcalf (WR-21 ADP) and Tyler Lockett (WR-22) as bargains, each with "easy 70/1,000/7 potential" who could "easily finish in the top 16." Metcalf is currently 6th and Lockett is 13th. And Will Dissly (TE-31) was my favorite tight end bargain in a crowded corps. But neither he nor Jacob Hollister nor Greg Olsen broke free.
RAMS -- On July 14 I said Jared Goff's QB-19 ADP was way off--that he "has plenty of weapons to comfortably finish in the top 16--and enough talent to return to the top 10." I can barely claim to be accurate on this one, as he's 15th and will miss the finale. Simply put, Goff failed to quiet his growing doubters. In the backfield, I urged readers to bet on Cam Akers (RB-27): "If you can snag Akers at his current price (a sixth rounder in 12-team leagues), his upside alone makes him worth the investment, even if he begins the season in a timeshare." And that's essentially what happened, though not soon enough. He'll be a trendy top-16 pick next summer.
I felt very comfortable drafting Robert Woods (WR-19 ADP) and Cooper Kupp (WR-15) at their price points. Woods is now 12th and Kupp is 19th. Imagine how good they might have been if Goff had been a little better (probably top 10, like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen). And I was surprised to see I liked Tyler Higbee at his TE-7 ADP, as I cautioned against him the following month. But I'll live with the mistake; Higbee (17th best TE) could not come close to recapturing the magic of his historic late-2019 run.
CARDINALS -- On July 6 I asked you all about Kyler Murray. I was genuinely torn about his QB-4 ADP, feeling he could be a little better or a little worse, and neither would surprise me. He'll be an obvious top-4 option next summer. My backfield predictions: "The only major knock on [Kenyan] Drake is his lack of bellcow experience: he never exceeded 92 carries in a college season, and last year he had a career-high 170 carries. To produce at an RB1 level, he'll probably need at least 250 touches--doable, but let's see how he handles 15 touches per game week after week." Drake has 251 touches and is the #14 RB despite missing a game. He'll probably be overpriced next summer. Back to my July write-up: "Capable backup Chase Edmonds (RB-54) will be a top fantasy handcuff for the third straight summer." Edmonds now has stand-alone value and will have a shot at overtaking Drake next year if Drake gets off to another slow start.
I whiffed on Arizona's receiving corps. Highlighting DeAndre Hopkins' 150+ targets in each of the previous five seasons, in July I wrote, "expect Hopkins to compete a bit more for targets, lowering his ceiling and making him overvalued at his WR-3 ADP." I missed that call, as he's sitting on 150 targets and is the #4 WR. Also notably, I recommended readers "snag Christian Kirk (WR-41) as a near-automatic top-35 WR with top-25 upside if Murray continues developing. Fitz (WR-64) is a slight bargain with a fairly hard WR4/5 ceiling." Kirk has been hit-or-miss and currently sits at #44, while Fitz is at 71. And regarding Dan Arnold (TE-43 ADP), I wrote "if you draft Arnold, you're hoping for three TD-dependent TE1 performances this year." His three best performances have been 5th, 13th, and 14th, so I hit that pretty squarely.
49ERS -- Arguably no team has had worse luck this year. Last year's Super Bowl contenders have been decimated by injuries. By early November they were missing 22 players. And their midseason schedule was too brutal to overcome. So every preseason prediction by me and others can be largely thrown out the window. We simply haven't seen enough of Jimmy G., though for his sake at least Nick Mullens didn't exactly threaten Jimmy's 2021 starting job. Despite the fact he's signed through 2022, San Fran could cut Garoppolo fairly easily this offseason or next, so that's something to monitor if their "franchise" QB doesn't take a meaningful step forward next season.
On July 30 I spelled out the risks of drafting Raheem Mostert at his RB-29 ADP: "Keep in mind he had only 136 carries in college, and he's sharing space with two talented RBs. Mostert is a bit of a trap play, as his passing-game usage should be minimal, and his one-touchdown-per-15-touches will be tough to replicate." Injuries aside, Mostert continued to run well, but proved to be risky even when starting, thanks to the ascending Jeff Wilson. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel's preseason RB ADP was 31. I expect he'll be around 45 next summer, which would make him a solid buy. And I wrote that Brandon Aiyuk (WR-63 ADP) "is a fairly obvious bargain who should crack the top 50 before Week 1, with plenty of room to pop."
As for George Kittle, I projected him at 95/1,200/8, or 263 fantasy points. In seven games he's at 41/566/2, which across 16 games would have put him at 94/1,294/5--or 254 fantasy points.