Happy New Year, everybody. Continuing to roll through each team's surprising and non-surprising fantasy outcomes, based on universal preseason predictions and my own preseason predictions (which, as you all know, often diverge from the norm). Today, the NFC South:
SAINTS -- Drew Brees was the consensus preseason 9th-ranked QB. In my July 20 Saints rundown, I like the veteran at that price. And in his first eight games before getting hurt, he averaged 19.4 points, which today would have placed him 12th among fantasy QBs. But it's quite likely he's playing hurt, and without Michael Thomas for a good chunk of the season, he had almost not shot at QB1 production. If Hill officially wins the job next year, he'll be a tough QB to accurately value. But we'll get to that next July. Regarding Alvin Kamara, I wrote that "last year he was 3-for-8 converting scores on rushing attempts inside the opposing 5, but all three scores came from the 1. In 2018 he was 9-for-16 converting scores on rushes inside the 5, with six coming from the 1. Last year's TD regression was an anomaly." In other words, he'd rebound just fine.
I shared the fantasy's universe's belief in the conceivably elite Michael Thomas, so there's not much to say there. A healthy Thomas will be a WR1 next year. The only question is whether he can ever be elite if Hill's at QB. I also liked Emmanuel Sanders as a slight bargain at his WR-50 ADP, and he's currently at #47 while missing two games. And not surprisingly, I viewed Tre'Quan Smith (WR-113 ADP) as nothing more than a speculative flyer. He'll be 25 next year and playing for a new contract, though it's almost impossible to envision him taking a significant step forward. As for Jared Cook, I wrote, "His TE-10 ADP is a bit conservative though I recognize a rebounding Kamara and an improved #2 WR could cut into Cook's production. Still, despite drafting Adam Trautman in the third round (and trading four picks to get him), Cook deserves a close look as a reliable TE1 as long as he's starting. A 50/650/5 line is realistic, and a little more is possible." He's at 33/461/6 and should finish the year around 38/520/6--so just a little below expectations.
BUCCANEERS -- My views on Tom Brady and the Bucs (July 28) were far bolder than my Saints picks. Brady's QB-11 ADP seemed too conservative to me, as I wrote that "if the far less polished Jameis Winston could dominate for much of last season, it's easy to see how Brady could finish in the top 8." He's the #9 fantasy QB with a week to go. My RB picks can be thrown out the window, because Tampa Bay hadn't yet acquired Leonard Fournette. So Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB-35) was still battling Ronald Jones (RB-30). For those who drafted early, I explained why Vaughn "offers the most risk" and that Jones had a leg up on the starting job.
The receivers are also hard to evaluate, as Antonio Brown wasn't yet in the picture. But I very clearly (and repeatedly during the summer) warned against drafting Mike Evans (WR-8) and Chris Godwin (WR-6) at their price points. My exact words were "A more realistic result will be a top-12 finish for one wideout and a top 18-24 finish for the other." And this is pretty much what's happened: Evans is currently #11, while Godwin--who's missed four contests--is #22 in points per game. And O.J. Howard's season-ending injury boosted Gronk's value, though it's hard to know whether Gronk would have been a TE1 regardless. I wrote that "Gronk's intangible is nearly a decade's chemistry with Brady, which means everything in Brady World. Still somehow only 31 years old, Gronk's upside is as high as any fantasy tight end, and his floor is around 10-12." He's current at #9, and probably would have been better if they hadn't later signed Brown.
PANTHERS -- On July 4 I shared why Carolina paid too much to Teddy Bridgewater, "whose greatest claim is throwing to Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas." A little blunt, I know. But the point was clear: Bridgewater is a middling NFL and fantasy QB. But here's the thing, his QB ADP was 27. Was that not insane? So while I've never bought into Bridgewater as reliable QB1 material, I urged readers to reach for him in two-QB leagues, saying "he'll comfortably outperform expectations." Even without Christian McCaffrey for much of the season, Bridgewater will end the season at #15 or #16 among fantasy QBs. He'll probably be in the top 14-18 range again next season.
I could write several columns about why CMC was the riskiest universal #1 pick in years. I shared an initial warning on July 4, pointing to my research showing high-volume RBs are huge injury/regression risks the following year. And when he first got hurt this season, I urged managers to sell high ASAP--that Carolina's short-term schedule likely would knock them out of playoff contention, and the team wouldn't risk starting their franchise back in meaningless games. That's exactly how it's worked out. So if did sell high, congratulations. If not, keep this in your back pocket for future seasons.
Also, my sharp warnings about the expert-consensus Carolina WR rankings proved accurate. Regarding D.J. Moore (WR-9), I wrote "he'll be lucky to finish in the top 16, and you can take that to the bank." Currently #23, he obviously didn't come close to earning his third-round draft value. And I said "Robby Anderson (WR-57) is a likely bargain, and it should surprise no one if he outperforms Moore some weeks." Of course, Anderson bettered Moore many weeks and is currently the #15 fantasy WR. But I and most folks whiffed on Curtis Samuel, who was deemed essentially undraftable (WR-65), but he took off after CMC's injury. And I missed big on Ian Thomas (TE-24 ADP), who I predicted would crack the top 18, with "a decent shot at breaking through." Thomas is the 51st best TE this year. Enough said.
FALCONS -- Matt Ryan (QB-8 ADP) had it rough with Julio Jones missing nearly half the season. It's hard to believe he's 84 points behind the other Ryan (Tannehill). I like Matt's preseason ranking, and I'll like his lower ranking next summer when experts overlook him. A healthy Julio and Calvin Ridley, plus an assuredly improved running game, will once make Ryan a QB1. In the backfield, I was surprised just now to see that on July 12 I was neutral about Todd Gurley's RB-15 ADP, especially since in October I started warning readers that his TD-dependent production was completely unsustainable--that he would probably begin losing touches to Ito Smith and/or Brian Hill. But back in July I wrote, "A little over 50% of his rushing TDs since December 2015 (25 of 49) have come inside the opposing 2-yard line. He should net plenty of punch-in opportunities in Atlanta, particularly with the departure of the exceptionally reliable Hooper, who scored six of his 16 career touchdowns from inside the opposing 3." And that's how it's worked out, with Gurley finding the end zone nine times in his first nine games before the coaching staff realized he's no longer very good. Watch for Atlanta to acquire an elite RB this offseason, or draft one. This offense could be top-5 next year.
Finally, there's little point over-analyzing my WR picks, as Julio's extended absence has helped Ridley and Russell Gage. So if Julio had remained healthy, it's impossible to know if I would have been right to label Ridley a slight bargain at his WR-17 ADP. It's worth noting Russell Gage's preseason ADP was WR-99. That's why locked-in #3 WRs are often worthwhile best-ball and deep-league flyers. And I viewed Hayden Hurst (TE-11) as "a safe top-14 option and a reasonable reach at 8 or 9." While he's a somewhat disappointing 15th, he's only 5.6 points out of 10th with one game to go.