Monday will be my final post of the season, so I'm doubling up on divisional fantasy recapping today, covering surprises and non-surprises from the AFC South and West. I'll condense my thinking to keep things as brief as possible:
TITANS -- I was completely wrong to underestimate Ryan Tannehill, believing he'd be even worse than his already low QB-17 ADP. On a personal level, it's wonderful to see a guy like Tannehill go from supposed franchise Dolphins QB, to scapegoat, to castoff, to QB1 on what should be a perennial playoff contender. In the backfield, I wrote that Derrick Henry's "RB-6 ADP seems about right, as his limitations in the passing game need to be offset by another massive TD total (he has 30 in the past two seasons)." Henry is now the #3 RB with 15 scores, six of which have come from the 1-yard line. He's punched in 19 TDs from the 1 since 2018.
On July 29 I also wrote that I was "cool on A.J. Brown" at his WR-16 ADP due to questionable volume. I was wrong, as he's 12th in WR points per game despite having the fewest targets among all top-25 fantasy WRs. And I liked taking Corey Davis (WR-73) or Adam Humphries (WR-127) as nothing-to-lose flyers. Davis obviously crushed it. And I pushed Jonnu Smith as an easy bargain at his TE-17 ADP, saying he'll be a "top 14-15 option with room to pop into the top 10 if utilized more near the goal line." He's currently 13th with a clear shot at top-10 production if he hit double-digit points tomorrow.
COLTS -- On July 13 I wrote that Philip Rivers' QB-22 ADP "makes sense," and that his ceiling was top 16-18. He's currently 19th, and one has to wonder if an Andrew Luck-led offense would have guided this team to a 2 seed. Back then, Marlon Mack (RB-42) was still competing for the backfield starting job. But I wrote "if you're playing to win, [Jonathan] Taylor is worth his RB-21 ADP." Regarding T.Y. Hilton's WR-24 ADP, I wrote "T.Y. will be hitting 11-13 fantasy points per game--not the 13-15+ required of a reliable WR2. Sure enough, he's at 10.8. And I like Michael Pittman at his WR-54 ADP, but he failed to catch fire with Rivers leaning heavily on his RBs and TEs. Finally, Indy's three main TEs canceled each other out, as their only preseason top-50 guy (Jack Doyle -- TE-18) turned out to easily be the worst of the three.
TEXANS -- On July 21 I liked Deshaun Watson at his QB-6 ADP, and he'll finish the year #5 or #6. In the backfield I pushed David Johnson (RB-21 ADP) despite his higher-than-average risks, as well as Duke Johnson as slight bargain at his RB-49 ADP. David missed three games, but is a solid 18th in points per game, while Duke failed to deliver. The receiving corps is a mess due to a suspension, a cut, and injuries. Notably, #5 wideout Keke Coutee had a preseason ADP of WR-275, and that pretty much sums up Houston WRs this season. And no Texan TE was worth drafting this summer, as expected.
JAGUARS -- I predicted Gardner Minshew was a "near lock to outdo his QB-28 ADP." He's 25th in QB scoring and 13th in points per game. So yeah, he's been a capable streamer when active, despite the fantasy universe predicting otherwise. Back on July 5 Leonard Fournette was still a Jag, so everyone's backfield predictions were pretty irrelevant in hindsight. That said, I whiffed big on James Robinson even after the team waived Fournette, never imagining he'd be fantasy relevant. And I bought into D.J. Chark's consensus WR-23 ADP, which was wrong. I accurately viewed Laviska Shenault (WR-77) as "a better dynasty hold." And I viewed Tyler Eifert as bargain at his TE-47 ADP, offering "top-20 appeal," but still probably not useful. He's currently 27th.
CHIEFS -- On July 30 I ranked Patrick Mahomes #2 vs. a QB-1 ADP. He'll finish #3 or #4. My views on Clyde Edwards-Helaire evolved since first tagging him as a slight bargain at his RB-14 ADP. As his ADP continued climbing into the top 10, and then the top 8, and then (in late August) the top 6, I urged folks not to buy into the hype. While CEH could be an immediate impact fantasy star, I never viewed him as a locked-in RB1. And I missed big on Tyreek Hill (WR-4 ADP), claiming "8-12 is more realistic." And I made the case for Sammy Watkins (WR-57 ADP) outperforming Mecole Hardman (WR-46). Turns out both have flopped, though Watkins is averaging almost a point more per game than Hardman. And I agreed with Travis Kelce's consensus TE-1 ADP. Of course.
RAIDERS -- On July 15 I wrote that Derek Carr "is a useful bargain at his unfair QB-26 ADP." Most experts got it wrong, and this page hopefully helped steer a few two-QB leaguers toward him. Carr is currently 14th. I was bullish on Josh Jacobs as a slight bargain vs. his RB-9 ADP. He's currently 9th despite missing a game, and a strong finish should make him 7th or 8th. That said, he'll need more receptions in 2021 to be a reliable weekly top-14 RB. At wideout, Henry Ruggs was the only receiver ranked inside the top 60 (WR-46 ADP). I offered that "Hunter Renfrow (WR-64), rookie Bryan Edwards (WR-80), and Nelson Agholor (WR-92) are all candidates to surprise, with Renfrow offering the highest floor and possibly the highest ceiling." Renfrow edged ahead of expectations, but Agholor of course was the big winner, while Ruggs will enter 2021 as a major question mark despite obvious talent. And I wrongly anticipated a slight regression for Darren Waller (TE-5 ADP), who will end the season as the runaway #2 fantasy tight end.
BRONCOS -- On July 7 I wrote "[Drew] Lock's ceiling is around 20th, and his floor is "benched by Week 6." I also wrote that "it is insane to me that Lock (QB-23) is ranked better than Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minchew, and Ryan Fitzpatrick." I was right about this: Lock (#26 QB) has fewer points than three of these guys, while Fitzpatrick (#27) has clearly been better while starting many fewer games. I was neutral on Melvin Gordon's RB-17 ADP, while viewing Phillip Lindsay as a "solid investment" at his RB-40 ADP. Gordon is currently 18th, but Lindsay surprisingly faded, though his health certainly was a factor. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton (WR-18 ADP) wasn't yet hurt, so it's hard to evaluate the receiving corps. However, I did write that "I'd rather snag [Jerry] Jeudy at his WR-38 ADP than be misled by Sutton's breakout 2019." Jeudy looked like a #1 until Tim Patrick started his double-digit streak. I expect Jeudy to be a bit undervalued next summer, even with Sutton returning. Regarding Noah Fant's TE-10 ADP, I wrote "this isn't a strong enough aerial attack to rationalize paying a TE1 price for a weekly semi-boom / bust option." Fant is currently 12th with room to edge upward or downward in Week 17.
CHARGERS -- The final team in today's rundown. Justin Herbert (QB-36 ADP) dramatically elevated the passing game. On July 23 I acknowledged that he "could shine in this offense, though he might not get the chance this year" when Tyrod Taylor was the presumed early-season starter. Herbert will be an easy QB1 next year and is dynasty gold. And the backfield is hard to judge with Austin Ekeler (RB-12) missing so much time. Looking forward to seeing how he's priced next season. I also urged readers to trust Keenan Allen as a WR1 despite his bizarre WR-20 ADP. But I put too much faith in Mike Williams (WR-48 ADP) as a certifiable bargain. Currently ranked 51st, he should exceed WR-48 expectations by tomorrow. But the point is, I expected more and underestimated the impact of off-the-radar guys like Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. Finally, I was comfortable with Hunter Henry's TE-7 ADP, and he's currently #8 with one game to go.