Yesterday pretty much summed up the 2020 fantasy season. Tom Brady racked up around 30 fantasy points in the first half, the formerly seemingly dominant Cardinals are now at serious risk of missing the postseason, and Ryan Fitzpatrick made the 8th or 9th triumphant return of his career. I missed big on Myles Gaskin based on concerns that Miami would take a hot-hand approach, and when Salvon Ahmed struggled early (and Gaskin thrived), it was clear whose hands would get the ball the rest of the game. While the Gaskin miss hurts, this is of course how fantasy works. It's about analyzing probabilities, and then the game does its thing.
On the flip side, I hit big warning against the flailing Josh Jacobs, and I also widely recommended Jeff Wilson, Kenyan Drake, and Leonard Fournette. And on the flip-flip side, I also thought Kyler Murray would do more. Strange happenings for a guy who's been the #1 fantasy QB most of the season.
For today's games, here's what I'm watching:
Chiefs vs. Falcons -- I like Le'Veon Bell as an 11+ point RB with fantastic upside in a plus matchup, even though Darrel Williams looms if Bell stumbles. And can Russell Gage extend his TD streak to four games? In other words, is he a near-automatic WR3+?
Jets vs. Browns -- I realized yesterday that Frank Gore is only four years younger than LaDainian Tomlinson, which is like realizing Chris Rock is only four years younger than Eddie Murphy. Cleveland's yielding a little over one rushing score per game. Can Gore help desperate fantasy managers? And the Browns' top four wideouts are late additions to the COVID list, meaning Nick Chubb could be this week's #2 fantasy RB, while Kareem Hunt has a good shot at the top 10.
Steelers vs. Colts -- Which Pittsburgh squad will show up? Just like the Miami situation, I want to see whether James Conner resumes his bellcow role, or if this quickly becomes a hot-hand backfield if Benny Snell gets going early. Keep in mind aside from rolling over the easily-rolled-over Jaguars, Conner hasn't exceeded 3.1 YPC in four of his last five games. And is T.Y. Hilton a must-start WR3+?
Jaguars vs. Bears -- Speaking of Jacksonville, with James Robinson out, can Dare Ogunbowale or Devine Ozigbo do anything--and I mean anything--against Chicago? And was I wrong to doubt Mitch Trubisky's ability to hit 20+ today? (As always, I think David Montgomery will continue to dominate.)
Ravens vs. Giants -- Will we see "vintage" Lamar Jackson in a must-win game against a tough D? And with Wayne Gallman's carries decreasing every week, is he officially unstartable? (I believe "absolutely.")
Texans vs. Bengals -- Which Houston receiver(s) will come up big today? And despite his TD-dependent breakout last week, will Gio Bernard be benched in favor of younger talent, just so Cincy can see what they have in Trayveon Williams?
Chargers vs. Broncos -- With Hunter Henry out and Keenan Allen questionable, will Mike Williams be the guy many believe he can be? And with Phillip Lindsay sidelined, is Melvin Gordon an RB2?
Washington vs. Panthers -- If Antonio Gibson returns, is he a trustworthy start? And Mike Davis has fared well despite not eclipsing 66 rushing yards since October 11th. Can he be counted on as an RB2?
Cowboys vs. Eagles -- If Zeke Elliott starts, will he out-pace Tony Pollard? And is Miles Sanders a top-10 RB this week?
Seahawks vs. Rams -- Will the boom / relative-bust Tyler Lockett break through when it matters most? And can Darrell Henderson reassert himself with Cam Akers out?
Packers vs. Titans -- Is Allen Lazard heating up, or will last week prove to be his best December performance? And is Jonnu Smith a TE1? His Week 16 expert-consensus ranking is 18. He's the 12th highest scoring fantasy TE this season. With so many fantasy titles on the line, I like him in the double-digits today.
Good luck, everybody.