Tonight's contest could end up deciding some fantasy playoff outcomes. Several guys have 25+ point potential, and if you or your opponent have at least two of them, . . . well, we can all do math.
With respect to the real playoff, this game is pretty unusual, in that the Raiders have been in the playoff hunt all year, while the Chargers have been out of it most of the year after starting 1-4. The Bolts' first seven losses were by eight points or less, while three of their four wins have been by six or less. So it's been a bit of a "what-if" season for a team that lost their star RB early while their uber-promising rookie QB adjusts to the NFL.
It might seem hard to believe this, but this likely will be the fourth time in six seasons the Raiders will finish ahead of the Chargers in the standings--after finishing worse all 11 years before that. And if the Raiders take care of business tonight, they'll still have a shot at their second postseason berth in 17 years.
You all know I like researching interesting stats that help us make sense of fantasy. One of the most interesting ones I've dug up this week is Josh Jacobs' impact on the Raiders' success. Jacobs is averaging 21.4 points per win and only 9.2 per loss. That's an insane gap. In fact, of his seven highest fantasy outputs, six led to victories. He's also averaging 25.7 touches per win vs. 15.8 per loss.
Obviously these stats are interconnected based on game flow and opposing defensive schemes. But the bigger picture is critical as some of you weigh the all-important decision of whether to start Jacobs as an RB1 or even an RB2. Because I believe he's the wild card in tonight's game. He's likely to make-or-break a lot of seasons. In five of seven games he's finished an RB3 or worse. He's been an RB1 only four times--though three of those times were huge (twice hitting 30+ points). Which Jacobs will we see?
He had his third-lowest touch total (15) the last time these two teams met, as Devontae Booker snagged eight carries. If Booker continues to eat into Jacobs' workload, obviously that makes the latter a risky RB2. All of Jacobs' TDs have been in the red zone this year, with 7-of-9 coming inside the 7-yard line.
I believe Jacobs will score twice tonight. The Chargers handled the anemic Falcons run game, but otherwise have been gashed by too many teams--including a relatively impressive showing from the Jets. They're giving up a healthy 4.6 YPC overall. Their pass defense isn't any better, meaning the Raiders should have plenty of trips to the goal line. So playing the probabilities, I'd start Jacobs as a top-14 option.
You don't need to hear much from me about his teammates. Derek Carr is the #13 fantasy QB and is a seemingly strong 18+ point option. Darren Waller is a no-brainer as Carr's frequent #1 target. Nelson Agholor is an interesting case: a frequent co-#1 target who also leaves plenty of yards on the field (top 20 in drops). The problem is that outside Hunter Renfrow and less-used rookie Henry Ruggs (who’s out), there's not a lot to choose from. Agholor and Renfrow should crack 10+ points and one should be a WR2+.
As for their opponents, I drafted two Chargers this summer, including Keenan Allen in the fourth round. I got plenty of push-back after drafting Michael Thomas and Davante Adams in rounds 1 and 2. But here we are in Week 15, and I have the #2 and #5 fantasy WRs, plus Thomas in my flex. It's always a good time to draft a #3 receiver when you think that receiver will exceed expectations. Keenan was the expert-consensus 20th-ranked WR this preseason. I thought he was a near-automatic top-10 guy. Taking this leap instead of snagging the comparably priced Leonard Fournette or Melvin Gordon or Devin Singletary ("The smart move is to get a running back!") has made all the difference.
Anyway, assuming he plays, Keenan should be the usual Keenan tonight, and Austin Ekeler will be the usual Ekeler. Justin Herbert is another 18+ point guy, thanks to Ekeler making his QBs look good piling up receiving yards and occasional receiving scores. Mike Williams and Hunter Henry are toss-ups, as always. The former is a perennially underachieving receiver who's not a lock for top-40 production (if he plays). And Henry is one of the weakest TE1s, even though he's the #7 scorer. His low TD total (three) overshadows a strong target total (86). He's caught only 64% of his targets--the worst mark among the top-8 TEs. As with most tight ends, if he scores, you're golden. If he doesn't, you're staring at fewer points (6-10 most weeks) than you need this week.
Good luck tonight.