It appears my season will end in the semis. Five of my first six draft picks missed some-to-most games, and my sixth got hurt when it mattered most this week. But as always, no excuses, since injuries impact everyone. I clawed back after starting 1-5. My biggest mistake was not locking down a reliable QB1 after Dak Prescott got knocked out. As always, there's been a lot to learn this season, and I'll keep trying to get smarter ahead of next year.
Hopefully all of you (or realistically, "many" of you) fared better. I know a couple of you are competing against your spouse this weekend. Others had unusually difficult sit/start decisions. I cautioned many of you to sit Mike Davis and to start Robert Tonyan, and also hyped Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as streamers. I also missed big advising that Josh Allen would be more of a back-end QB1 rather than an elite one (hats off to Richard Schneider for steering you right). And Tim Patrick's incredibly consistent run as a WR3 ended, much to my surprise.
With many seasons on the line today, here are the fantasy storylines I'm closely following:
Falcons vs. Buccaneers -- As always with Atlanta, the backfield is painfully fascinating. Ito Smith will get another crack at proving his value heading into 2021, while Todd Gurley is running out of time (or is essentially out of time) to earn a starting job next year. Meanwhile, can Leonard Fournette be the fantasy hero I think he'll be?
Cowboys vs. 49ers -- A battle of severely underachieving teams, though it's hard to blame either one given the circumstances. Shockingly, Amari Cooper is the 12th highest scoring WR despite finishing in the top 20 only four times. Really, how bizarre is that? I think he'll make it five times today, while Zeke Elliott's positioning atop the RB pecking order will be tested yet again, as Tony Pollard continues to look like the better back. And can Raheem Mostert hold off Jeff Wilson, particularly near the goal line?
Titans vs. Lions -- Corey Davis has hit the top 20 only twice, and just as notably hasn't exceeded five receptions since Week 8. He's the fantasy wild card in a plus matchup. And will D'Andre Swift return to his pre-injury top-16 self?
Colts vs. Texans -- What happened to Michael Pittman? He's one of my favorite unheralded flex streamers this week, despite the fact T.Y. Hilton remains a must-start. And will Keke Coutee recapture the magic of two weeks ago, or will this tough matchup--combined with the return of Brandin Cooks and the ascension of uber-backups like Chad Hansen--limit Coutee's upside?
Dolphins vs. Patriots -- Nearly a year ago, Miami manufactured one of the greatest regular season upsets I've ever seen. Most of those players won't be on the field today. But one who will be--2019 hero DeVante Parker--is one of those "Can I risk starting him?" fantasy options. And with Damien Harris out, can Sony Michel make any noise? He's had only one game above 3.7 (a 13.0 YPC back in Week 3).
Vikings vs. Bears -- Irv Smith has flashed. Is he poised to be Kirk Cousins' #3 target today (or even #4 behind Dalvin Cook)? And can David Montgomery push his way toward the top half of the RB1 circle?
Washington vs. Seahawks -- Will Terry McLaurin snap back? And Tyler Lockett has exceeded 12 fantasy points (and top-30 WR production) only once in the last seven games, as D.K. Metcalf has assumed greater prominence (despite catching 12 fewer balls). Can we trust Lockett as a must-start option? (I believe "absolutely.")
Ravens vs. Jaguars -- Will Marquise Brown get back on track? And can Gardner Minshew steady the Jags' passing attack and help elevate D.J. Chark?
Rams vs. Jets -- Is this the game where Jared Goff looks like his 2018 self? I love him as a QB1, which would place him on the doorstep of top-12 production for the season. And will any Jet be startable today?
Cardinals vs. Eagles -- Kyler Murray was a top-11 QB in each of his first nine games. He hasn't hit that mark in any of his last four. Which Murray will we see today? And is Jalen Hurts for real?
Saints vs. Chiefs -- With Drew Brees back and Michael Thomas on the shelf, who will be the #1 receiver (besides Alvin Kamara)? And will Sammy Watkins have a big fantasy day? If Marshon Lattimore shadows Tyreek Hill, I'd bet on it.
Giants vs. Browns -- Will Wayne Gallman hold down the #1 job despite Devonta Freeman's expected return? And Baker Mayfield has dominated the last two weeks after an abysmal first three months. Will he finish strong?
Good luck today.