Yesterday a lot happened: Drew Brees is making a (somewhat) surprising return tomorrow, while Michael Thomas is a (very) surprising scratch. Zeke Elliott, Matthew Stafford, and Evan Engram appear to be heavily questionable. For Washington, Dwayne Haskins will get the start, while Antonio Gibson is expected to miss another game, as will Julio Jones.
As always, no excuses if you're disproportionately affected. There are always--always--high-scoring players sitting on waivers. The key is figuring out who will break out, and who among your starters is likely to bust. So here are my 15 bargains and busts based, as always, on Fantasy Pros' expert-consensus rankings:
At quarterback, yes, I'm a sucker for Matt Ryan. One of the worst fantasy QBs this past month and missing his longtime top receiver, Ryan is headed toward a 300+ yard day against a Bucs team that excels against the run, and which should rack up 35+ points. In other words, I'm banking on 40+ throws from Ryan (QB-20 Week 15 ranking), leading to competent streaming numbers at worst. I also like Ben Roethlisberger (QB-14) coming up big against the very beatable Bengals. On the flip side, Denver has one of the stingier pass defenses, but are vulnerable against the run. I think Devin Singletary and/or Zack Moss will get more run than usual, while Josh Allen (QB-4) will finish outside the top 10.
At running back, Leonard Fournette (RB-43) hasn't popped as much as he should have with Ronald Jones ruled out three days ago. Fournette will compete with the aged LeSean McCoy, though Fournette is expected to carry the load. I'd plug him in as a 16+ touch RB2 with terrific goal-line TD potential. Nyheim Hines (RB-20) appears to be priced right as a complementary back ranked 16th in RB fantasy scoring--but with only one top-20 finish in his last four games. That said, there's a good chance Indy scores 30+ against the Houston team that's yielded 30+ six times this year. 80+ yards, 4+ catches, and a score are doable, making Hines a must-start top-16 RB. On the flip side, can Carolina keep up with Green Bay? Probably not. Mike Davis (RB-8) needs to score to be an RB1, and I'm not sure he'll get much run in the second half while playing from behind. I see him as a deceptively low-floor starter who's realistically a back-end RB2 at best.
At wideout, you've already heard me this week hyping Sammy Watkins (WR-62), who should draw softer coverage than one or both of his far more prolific teammates. I like 5-80 numbers out of the usually (deservedly) forgotten Watkins. Also, which Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR-51) will show up? If you don't have a reliable WR2+ in your final WR or flex lineup slot, consider the boom-bust MVS against one of the NFL's worst past defenses (Carolina). And remember when Michael Pittman looked like the Colts' #1 receiver, before T.Y. Hilton rediscovered his former glory? Well don't quit on Pittman (WR-35), who's on par with T.Y. talent-wise and is a worthwhile bet to deliver a WR2+ performance. On the flip side, which Diontae Johnson will we see? Another drop could send him back to the bench. While he's capable of blowing up with double-digit targets, his WR-20 ranking makes me nervous after so many weeks of struggling to catch the ball.
At tight end, Tyler Higbee (TE-20) gets a dream opportunity against the Jets, and Logan Thomas (TE-12) is still a bargain. On the flip side, Jordan Reed is overpriced at his TE-13 ranking. Three catches would be a good day for him, and that's not what you want out of a high-end streamer.