The fantasy playoffs (for many of you) kicks off with one of the most historically fascinating matchups of the season. New England has reeled off six straight wins against the Rams, a streak that began in Super Bowl XXXVI, when the nearly two-decade Patriot dynasty began. The Rams had scored the seventh most points in NFL history that year and entered the contest with eight straight 27+ point efforts. But Bill Belichick (in his second season as head coach of the team) and Tom Brady (in his first season, replacing Drew Bledsoe) and the rest of the Pats found a way to win despite being 14-point underdogs.
This game followed New England's famous/infamous "tuck-rule" AFC Divisional game against the Raiders. It was 10 weeks after the Patriots' final loss of the season--against the same Rams. And it was nearly five months after 9/11, our country still reeling from fright and anger and loss.
Tonight's contest is nearly 20 years in the making, and it carries remnants from a time when sports became a refuge from the painful and the often inescapable. Belichick and company will try to keep their dynasty going, having won the AFC East 16 of the last 17 years--the only exception being the Matt Cassel-led 2008 campaign when Brady was knocked out Week 1. After starting 2-5 and trailing by 10 late to the Jets, New England has climbed back to .500. With games against Buffalo (tough remaining schedule) and Miami on the docket, the Pats still have an outside shot at taking the division title once again. It's slim, but this franchise has overcome slim odds too many times to count. Tonight either the dynasty will continue, or their playoff hopes will be (mostly) dashed.
Compared to when they last faced off two years ago, the Patriots' defense isn't as daunting. They obliterated Justin Herbert and held Kyler Murray in check. And they're tied for second in interceptions. But they're not pressuring opposing quarterbacks (only 18 sacks) and are yielding a healthy 4.3 YPC. The Rams are stingier and fiercer on defense than the Pats. This has all the makings of a more run-heavy game than what we saw in their last Super Bowl matchup. Cam Newton has thrown for 200+ yards only three times this year. Damien Harris is clicking. Cam is mobile. James White is James White. I think Belichick will try to keep the Rams' defense on the field for a large majority of the first half.
The question is whether New England has enough firepower to take down the more talented Rams. Cam Akers looks like a bellcow back. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are among the league's best tandems (and remember, Kupp was hurt last time, which along with Todd Gurley's partial absence might have cost them a title). I love Kupp tonight in a statement game. And there's always plenty to love about Woods. My big question is whether Jared Goff will be turned loose, or whether head coach Sean McVay is still somewhat shell-shocked from Super Bowl LIII, when Goff inexplicably threw it 38 times compared to only 18 rushing attempts. The Rams have the backfield to move the ball downfield almost at will.
The downside fantasy-wise is that Akers has caught only four balls all year, making him too TD-dependent to trust against New England. But Darrell Henderson earned only five touches this past Sunday and isn't guaranteed more tonight. So again, I think Kupp and Woods are the only safe plays.
For the Patriots, I want to recommend Harris and White, but the former isn't involved enough in the passing game, and the latter (like Henderson) isn't getting enough looks. So it's anyone's guess how they'll perform. An equally big question mark is who Jalen Ramsey will shadow. If it's Jakobi Meyers, is Damiere Byrd a streamer? Again, this offensive attack isn't reliable enough to justify starting anyone other than Meyers. So it he's locked down, either Byrd or N'Keal Harry (presumably) will get some extra attention. But unless the Rams jump out big early, neither of these guys are safe streamers.
I like the Rams taking this one. I like Kupp and Woods leading all fantasy flexers. I like Cam Newton and possibly James White (if he gets more run) cracking 12+ points. And I like Jared Goff cracking 16. In other words, there are only two "safe" bets tonight from where I'm sitting, with Cam being the best boom-bust option based on his goal-line usage.
19 years ago, the Rams beat the Patriots during the regular season, en route to what many believed would be their second Super Bowl in three years--a mini-dynasty to build on. Instead, they were defeated in one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history. Dreams of a mini-dynasty collapsed. They lost their first five games the following season and finished better than 8-8 only once those next 15 years.
Tonight they begin to take back all that they've lost since then.