As the season goes on, the sit/start questions often get tougher as the variables increase. More guys are sidelined than earlier in the year, and more guys on the field might not be close to 100%. Head coaching changes sometimes alter offensive approaches. Teams in the playoff hunt might utilize starters differently than teams out of the playoff hunt (such as starting a backup rookie to see if he might be starter material next season). The domino effect of an impact RB or WR sitting is obvious--and when those impact players are questionable heading into gameday, it's anyone's guess how it'll play out.
With that in mind, here are my favorite bargains and most likely busts for the remaining Week 14 contests:
At quarterback, I'm buying Baker Mayfield at his expert-consensus QB-26 Week 14 ranking--not because of last week's blow-up, but because this is the game Cleveland probably circled back in August. To be good, they had to be good enough to beat the Ravens. This is the first time the Browns have won more than seven games since 2007, and they haven't won a playoff game since 1994 (when they were the soon-to-become Ravens). With Pittsburgh looming Week 17--and the Giants and Jets in between--this formerly incapable franchise can more or less clinch a postseason berth with a win. As up-and-down Baker has been, after an embarrassing 38-6 loss Week 1, this will be both a revenge game and a statement game: Cleveland's returning to the playoffs, and Baltimore quite possibly isn't. I like 18+ points out of Baker.
I also like Andy Dalton (QB-23) in a plus matchup. He still has plenty of offensive weapons and has settled into a QB2 groove. On the flip side, I can't trust Ryan Tannehill (QB-4). Last week he connected big-time in garbage time throughout the second half. This week it's Derrick Henry's turn to run over a bottom-3 Jacksonville defense.
At running back, Ito Smith (RB-50) earned nine touches last week despite Todd Gurley returning to action. Ito outplayed the veteran and should net another 8+ touches, making him a deceptively strong deep-league streamer if you're otherwise forced to start guys like Mark Ingram. An even bolder prediction (some might think) is betting on Raheem Mostert (RB-27). Last week the Niners went away from their starting RB near the goal line, and it cost them. This week I think Mostert will score against Washington and get more involved in the passing game as he was in the season's opening weeks. On the flip size, Myles Gaskin (RB-8) is too aggressively priced against the Chiefs. The Dolphins don't have the firepower to keep up with Kansas City, and Gaskin has been a top-15 RB only twice this year. He's a risky RB2, not a must-start RB1.
There are several undervalued wideouts this weekend. Danny Amendola (WR-72) is a surprising flyer as Detroit plays from behind against Green Bay. Cordarrelle Patterson is mis-priced as the consensus WR-76. There's no good reason for Michael Gallup's WR-51 ranking. And Breshad Perriman (WR-47) has tremendous upside in a lopsided matchup with Seattle and Denzel Mims sitting, making him a fantastic streamer. On the flip side, since a strong start, Robby Anderson has cracked the top 25 only once in his last seven games. His WR-14 ranking assumes a breakout performance against a capable Broncos defense.
At tight end, Hayden Hurst (TE-14) was utilized last week and should rebound with a top-10 outing with Julio Jones sidelined. I also like Jonnu Smith (TE-35) returning to the TE1 circle he's visited often this year. On the flip side, as much as I've liked Hunter Henry since the summer, his TE-5 ranking assumes a dominance we haven't really seen. A modest 5-50-0 line is more likely than a 7-60-1 line.