This summer, sites from ESPN to CBS Sports to Sporting News had Baltimore and Dallas among the top 5-6 teams favored to win the Super Bowl. Entering last night they had a combined 9-13 record, the former struggling to recapture the magic of 2019, and the latter still scarred by an early-season injury to their franchise QB.
Of course, Dallas's problems run deep. It's been two years since they've won a game while scoring less than 30 points. With Dak Prescott at the helm, they've got a shot at 30+ every time. But not with Andy Dalton. Fantasy-wise, miraculously, the team's Big Three wideouts all hit double-digits, while Zeke Elliott had only his second double-digit performance in his last six games. There will be plenty of startable guys for next week's "showdown" in Cincinnati. But this is yet another "What could have been" season for those who drafted Zeke, Amari Cooper, and others earlier than their production warranted.
Meanwhile, after losing four of five contests--all by less than a touchdown--the Ravens shook off a mildly slow start thanks to a revitalized Lamar Jackson, who finally looked elite while scoring more than twice for the first time in two months. It was also the first time all year he hasn't taken a sack. Their season might come down to next weekend in Cleveland, when they will surely rebound from their embarrassing 38-6 Week 1 loss. I'm expecting 25+ fantasy points for Lamar, a top-4 TE effort from Mark Andrews if he returns, another good output for Marquise Brown (the Ravens need him more than he's been utilized), and J.K. Dobbins' continued takeover of this backfield.
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I was looking at historic fantasy seasons last night and was struck by not just the dominance of some players, but also how many guys are doing it. At QB, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are almost on pace to beat Mahomes' all-time-best fantasy season (2018). And Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers are a couple big games (30+ points) away from being in contention for the rare 400+ campaign. Imagine if 3-4 QBs break that barrier, posting 5-6 more points per game than nearly every other QB1. That could have at least a small effect on how/when elite QBs are drafted next year.
Elsewhere, only nine wideouts have hit 22+ points per game, but two are on pace to join that club this year. And one of them--Davante Adams--is averaging 2+ points per game more than the top per-game fantasy WR of all time, Randy Moss (2007). Adams and Tyreek Hill are in two very different situations, with Adams playing in arguably the most top-heavy receiving corps in the league, and also on a run-friendlier team, while Hill has more competition, but can crush it on fewer catches. Their numbers are almost identical despite Adams missing two contests. Both have a shot at breaking Moss's record.
At TE, Travis Kelce is insane. Rob Gronkowski boasts the best tight end campaign in history (2011), and Kelce is just a hair behind that pace. With Kansas City competing for a 1 seed--and likely unable to rest their guys in Week 17 (unless Pittsburgh loses two of their next three and the Chiefs go 3-0)--expect a heavy dose of Kelce the rest of the way, and a real shot at an unprecedented season.
The same drama can't be said for running backs. No one is on pace to become a top-10 all-time season scorer, though a healthy Dalvin Cook has a better shot despite sitting behind Alvin Kamara. Cook will get run into the ground if needed to help Minnesota mount a postseason bid. If he maintains his 25-point-per-game clip, he'll post the 20th best RB campaign.