We're still waiting to hear about a lot of impact fantasy players' Week 16 availability. So there are a lot of "If _____, then start _____" responses to sit/start questions. In the meantime, last year I shared some research on how many games QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs play at various production tiers. For example, to what extent do WR1s benefit from simply not missing (m)any games vs. other positions? The charts are below. Here are some observations about this year's numbers (so far).
More QB2 games have been missed this year than last, meaning more QB2s might have been QB1s if they'd simply stayed healthy (or hadn't been demoted). Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew would have been on the cusp. Meanwhile, among QBs who've started every game, Baker Mayfield and Philip Rivers have the fewest fantasy points per contest. Along with Derek Carr, they're the only 14-game starters not in the top 16 overall and not in the top 24 in points per game.
Amazingly, in three of the previous five seasons, RB2s averaged more games played than RB1s. (For context, RB1s had played more games than RB2s in each of the prior 12 seasons.) This year it's back to "normal," with RB1s staying healthier. As a result, guys like Nick Chubb (#14 RB fantasy scorer), Chris Carson (#19), and even D'Andre Swift (#20) would have earned or exceeded their draft values (well, Swift has exceeded it regardless) if they hadn't missed time. They're #7, #8, and #15 in points per game, respectively. Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon also belonged in the RB1 club if they'd stayed healthy. It's easy, then, to look at Zeke Elliott (#1 overall fantasy RB in 13 games) and realize he could have been a middling RB2 or worse if CMC, Saquon Barkley had stayed on the field, and if the above guys had played in just a couple more contests.
Over the years, WR1s, 2s, and 3s have been more likely to stay healthy than players at other key fantasy positions. As I've said repeatedly, this is a reason why loading up on WR1s can be a useful draft strategy; they don't get hurt as often, and they almost never get demoted (unlike RBs). The downside, of course, is that it's fairly easy to snag a WR2/3 later in drafts or on waivers. As for playing time this year, RB1s and 2s have combined to miss 28 games, while WR1s and 2s have combined to miss only 11. While there are some what-ifs involving wideouts like Will Fuller and Brandon Aiyuk, WR2s have missed only three more games than WR1s, meaning their production difference is based mostly on old-fashioned point differential, not "All these guys would have been better if they hadn't been sidelined."
And I was surprised to see 12 of the top 16 fantasy TEs have played in every game. Last year only seven did. The year before, 10. The year before that, eight. The obvious what-ifs at this position are George Kittle and Dallas Goedert. The former should have been elite, and the latter could have been a mid-range TE1. And as usual, any non-TE1 who's started every game probably hasn't been worth starting except in deeper leagues--guys like Hayden Hurts (15th overall fantasy TE) and Jimmy Graham (16th). Their numbers are inflated because they've stayed healthy. But most weeks you could have found plenty of better streamers on waivers.
