Today let's dive into the NFC North as we try to make sense of this season's fantasy surprises and non-surprises:
PACKERS -- No team has scored more points than Green Bay. Last year they were 14th. So what happened? In 2019 Davante Adams missed four games, while Jimmy Graham was Aaron Rodgers' second-most-targeted receiver. Geronimo Allison was #4 in targets with 55, but dropped five of them--a terrible percentage that certainly didn't help Aaron Rodgers, who also took a hit thanks to Aaron Jones's league-leading 16 rushing scores. Nearly universally pegged as a back-end QB1 this summer, on July 26 I wrote, "If I could snag Rodgers at the 10-spot, I'll walk out of that draft thrilled." His 2020 dominance, therefore, shouldn't have been a surprise. And he'll enter 2021, deservedly, as one of fantasy's top-ranked QBs.
Elsewhere, I shared that "I'd definitely risk drafting [Aaron] Jones at his current value," which at the time was an RB-13 ADP. And I thought A.J. Dillon (RB-50 ADP) would be better than Jamaal Williams. That didn't pan out until this past week. Next year Dillon should be around an RB-40 as Jones's handcuff--perhaps a Zeke Elliott / Tony Pollard arrangement--while soon-to-be free agent Jamaal Williams could get a starting job on several RB-needy teams, or a backup job behind a starter, meaning his ADP could be anywhere from top-25 to top 40-50. At wideout, looking back I rediscovered that I undersold Davante Adams, believing his WR-2 ADP was a few spots too aggressive, as I wrongly thought other WRs would step up. And Robert Tonyan (TE-69 ADP) was off nearly everyone's radar, including mine. He's now the #4 fantasy TE, one up on #5 Logan Thomas despite Thomas earning nearly twice as many targets. I cannot find a past TE1 with a better catch rate (88%). He's the real deal, and I regret it took me so long to get on board with him.
BEARS -- In my July 10 rundown I described Mitch Trubisky (QB-35 ADP) as the better bet over Nick Foles (QB-34). Beyond that, I didn't give either much of a shot at relevance. Across a full season, Mitch's numbers would have looked respectable. As I've long maintained, if he ran as much as he did in 2017 (68 carries for 421 yards in 14 games), he'd be fantasy streamer about half the time. If Chicago invests in a #2 WR upgrade, he might just get there with or without his running game. And one of my biggest calls this summer was predicting big things for David Montgomery (RB-25 ADP). My July 10 column walks through the reasons why so many experts were completely wrong. While Tarik Cohen's injury certainly expanded his opportunities, it simply sped up his development. Montgomery has top-5 potential if Chicago commits to the run and/or if they upgrade their passing game to generate more scoring opportunities.
At wideout, I incorrectly sized up Allen Robinson as a WR2 instead of a WR1, thinking Anthony Miller would develop into a top-35 WR. Instead, Darnell Mooney has ascended to the #2 spot, while Miller's 74 targets effectively have canceled out Mooney's upside. And I missed on Jimmy Graham, believing he'd be no better than a mid-range TE2. Instead, he's somehow the 11th highest-scoring fantasy TE with a clear shot at #8. Cole Kmet will remain largely on ice until/unless this franchise is ready to make him *the* tight end.
VIKINGS -- Defensive injuries and three brutal losses by three points or less--plus a make-or-break loss to the Bears that they had several chances to win--means Minnesota will ensure their first losing record since 2014. Kirk Cousins will continue to take some of the blame because of his salary. But in three seasons with this organization he's produced an 88/29 TD/INT line along with roughly 4,000 passing yards a season. Consistently undervalued in draft day, this summer was no exception with an insane QB-21 ADP. I explained on July 18 why he was a "mid-range QB2 at worst and a back-range QB1 at best." He'll finish this season at #11 and no doubt will be underappreciated again next summer. Meanwhile, no surprises with Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison. Next year Mattison will remain one of the top RB handcuffs.
I also urged readers to buy low on Adam Thielen ("Buy him at his WR-14 ADP") and Justin Jefferson: "Given the team's top-heavy corps, first-round rookie Justin Jefferson (WR-44) offers the most pure fantasy value on this team. I really, really want Jefferson at that price: not much to lose, and potential top-25 production to gain." Both are WR1s, with Jefferson far exceeding my high expectations. Consider that most of the 170+ experts listed on Fantasy Pros ranked Jefferson outside the top 50, and no one placed him in the top 35. Not one person. This is why--and I want to keep pounding this point year after year--following expert rankings often doesn't pay off. Nearly everyone is getting their information from the same sources. I do my own research, compile and analyze my own stats, and usually don't even look at expert rankings until I've made up my own mind about each player. Like David Montgomery, Jefferson was one of those "I can't believe no one can see this" value picks. Looking forward to seeing who everyone's overlooking next summer.
Oh, and I liked Irv Smith more than Kyle Rudolph, though I predicted a 55/550/6 line for Smith. Had he played a full season he was on pace to hit around 38/445/6. So not quite there. More likely next year as Rudolph continues to fade.
LIONS -- Detroit was a disaster this year, due largely to injuries to Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift, not to mention a persistently ailing Matthew Stafford. Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson are not the answer in the backfield, and Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola can't anchor a high-impact receiving corps. So it's hard to evaluate this team's fantasy production compared to what I wrote on July 2. I felt Stafford's QB-13 ADP was more of a floor than a ceiling, and without Golladay most of the season, we can only guess that Stafford's current #16 ranking should have been better. More notably, I wasn't ready to reach for either Swift (RB-24) or Kerryon (RB-39), and it wouldn't be long before AP's arrival muddled everything to start the year. But as some of you recall, I drafted Swift and Kerryon in the middle rounds in the hope one of them would break through. Had Swift remained healthy, he was headed toward a top-10 rookie campaign. I imagine he'll earn around an RB-18 ADP next summer. He'll be one of my favorite RB bargains.
At receiver, again, hard to evaluate. I could try to take credit for saying "Marvin Jones (WR-37) should match or exceed his value if he stays healthy," but of course that worked out because Golladay's missed so much time. As for T.J. Hockenson, I wrote "600 yards and six scores are realistic. So is 400/4." He's currently at 698/6 and is the #3 fantasy TE. Assuming Golladay is 100% next summer, and if Swift becomes the bellcow I expect he'll be, I can't imagine Hock improving on his 2020 numbers.