Congratulations to all you winners, good luck to those with stakes tonight, and my most sincere "You'll get 'em next season" to those who fell short. And if you're also competing next weekend, I'll still be here with the FF4W commenting crew, so throw out your questions anytime.
To those who did win, please share how. We want to hear it. What did you do right? What were the key decisions that helped put you over the top?
Since this is an unusual season, I'll close out this final week of content with an unusual (for me) feature: a brief team-by-team rundown of preseason fantasy storylines that played out as expected, and those that were simply shocking. In fairness, I want to highlight my own hits and misses, because it's important to acknowledge not just the wins, but where my blind spots are, so hopefully I can get better next season.
Kicking things off, the victory-challenged NFC East:
WASHINGTON -- My first preseason team-by-team rundown was Washington, so this is a good place to start. Back on June 30th, the team hadn't yet eliminated its nickname, Dwayne Haskins was widely expected to win the starting QB job, Derrius Guice led the backfield with an RB-30 ADP, Adrian Peterson was still hanging around, and Thaddeus Moss (Randy's son) was an intriguing TE flyer. It's hard to believe that despite all the turmoil since then, this franchise is a win away from reaching the postseason.
Here's what I think we've learned: Alex Smith is the team's best QB. I wrote in June "if Washington is forced to turn to Smith or [Kyle] Allen--if Haskins flops in his sophomore campaign--then the franchise is in even more trouble than we realize." I'll stand by that. Smith's comeback was miraculous, heroic, etc. But he's a sub-middling, post-prime NFL starter. The team has an incredible offensive nucleus of young talent and an ascending defense. They owe Smith a lot of money, so it's hard to envision them upgrading at QB. But they need to.
I also praised Antonio Gibson (preseason RB-51 ADP) as the team's best fantasy RB bargain, while Guice was a "bust waiting to happen." But I never anticipated Logan Thomas would break out, and it took me until October or early November before I jumped on the bandwagon. Of course, once I jumped on, I was all in. No doubt Thomas has helped some of you win a title. He'll be 30 next year and will be on the TE1 radar--a late bloomer in the vein of former Titan Delanie Walker.
COWBOYS -- Think about this: Andy Dalton was run out of Cincinnati with a career 0-4 playoff record. No longer deemed starter material, he was destined to be Dak Prescott's backup for the foreseeable future. Yet if Dallas wins next week and Washington loses, he'll have a chance to win his first postseason game. The offense remains proficient, and at times electric. The worst mid-season record I've found for a team that made the playoffs was the 2014 Panthers (3-8-1). The Cowboys were 3-9. That's how crazy this whole situation is.
Fantasy-wise, I was all in on Dak Prescott this summer. Every other prediction went out the window when Dak was knocked out for the season. This team averaged 27.1 points per game last year, and they were averaging 32.6 this year when Dak went down. Assuming he's ready to roll Week 1, I'll bet on him again as a top-3 fantasy QB surrounded (arguably) by the best trio of wideouts in the league. In my July 24 team rundown, I hyped Tony Pollard as a bargain at his RB-48 ADP. But I picked Blake Jarwin (TE-20) over Dalton Schultz, so congrats to those who found streaming value from Schultz before the offense slowed.
GIANTS -- I expected more from this team because Saquon Barkley (RB-3) was supposed to anchor the offense. He didn't, obviously. And although Wayne Gallman (and to a lesser extent Devonta Freeman) helped steady the backfield, the loss of Saquon had a profound impact on everyone, most notably Daniel Jones. His preseason QB-15 ADP made sense to me, and I thought he could do even better, at least for part of the season. I also warned that his later-season schedule was brutal, so he shouldn't be relied on past the midway point. As it stands, he probably has a few games next September to figure things out. Maybe more. But the Giants won't remain patient if Jones isn't the answer.
It's hard, then, to evaluate the Giants' receivers. There's some great potential here. But Darius Slayton surprisingly flopped, and Evan Engram posted nice numbers despite leaving a lot of points on the field. And Sterling Shepard has been consistent when healthy. Those three guys could all be fantasy assets next year. It depends on Saquon's health and Jones's development.
EAGLES -- This summer (July 16) I wrote "I wouldn't be excited drafting [Carson] Wentz, even at his QB-12 ADP. While his TD/INT ratio these past three seasons are Tom Brady-like (and actually a little better), his ceiling isn't high enough to make him worth the reach. Still, as the season progressed, I started liking Wentz a little too much, drawn to a running game that produced five TDs and a sense that when his starters got healthy, he'd be a solid streamer. If he starts somewhere else next year, he could be a bargain-basement find. The talent is there. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery.
His replacement, Jalen Hurts, looks ready to be a top-13 QB and possible top 8. I love his floor and his ceiling. His receivers are a chaotic mess, so fantasy-wise hopefully this will be sorted out in 2021. And when it does, perhaps Jalen Reagor will be the #1. As for TE, I kept urging folks not to quit on Zach Ertz, and that couldn't have been more wrong. If he or Dallas Goedert are flying solo in Philly next season, we should see more consistent production.