Merry Christmas, everybody. Some quick thoughts on today's game, and good luck to those still in the title hunt.
The Saints are coming off back-to-back three-point losses and are true question marks in today's contest. Is Drew Brees healthy, or did he return too soon? Will Emmanuel Sanders step up as their last experienced, healthy wideout?
One thing is for sure: Alvin Kamara has a good shot at 30+ points. While his targets--and ceiling--plummeted with the mobile Taysom Hill under center, he's back to being the most catch-friendly RB around. Remember, he had 77 receptions in 11 games with Drew Brees on the field. A 7-50-1 receiving line is very realistic today. And Minnesota's defensive has been hit hard with injuries. A quick glance shows the Vikes giving up an acceptable 4.3 YPC.
But if you look closer, in the last three games--since elite LB Eric Kendricks went down--they've given up 4.8 YPC. Last week their opponents, Chicago, ran it 42 times. Yes, 42 times. Latavius Murray is a terrific desperation streamer, while Jared Cook is a TD-dependent top-16 TE. And of course it'll be hard to bench the WR3+ Sanders. But the big story today will be Kamara providing a huge early-week boost to managers who wisely drafted him and refused to sell when Brees got hurt.
Speaking of Brees, what can be said? Either he's playing injured, or he's fine. Either way, it's hard to imagine him passing for more than 200 yards. He'll need 3+ scores to be a QB1, and I don't like his odds.
Meanwhile, the Saints have one of the league's stingiest run defenses (3.8 YPC) and a top-8 pass defense. Dalvin Cook is a no-brainer, as is the continually ascending Justin Jefferson. Adam Thielen has been crushing it in the touchdown department (13), but not so much with receptions and yardage. In seven of 14 games he's caught three or fewer passes. Ignoring last season because he was playing hurt, serving as more of a decoy some games, we can see in both 2017 and 2018 he caught more than three balls in 14-of-16 games. So if you're betting on Thielen, you're hoping he'll get more looks. No one knows if he will. So understand he's as TD dependent as ever.
And Irv Smith is once again worth a Jared Cook-like flyer. And Kirk Cousins is a risky top 14-18 option. I don't see him as QB1, even if the game script requires him to throw more.