Now let's turn to the AFC North: Who were this year's fantasy surprises and non-surprises, and what are we watching for in 2021?
STEELERS -- In my July 9 Steeler rundown, I labeled Big Ben (QB-16 ADP) as one of the league's biggest boom-bust quarterbacks, for obvious reasons. Even at 38 years old, a fully healthy Ben entered the season with enough offensive talent to be a QB1. At the same time, we saw what happened last year when he got knocked out--the extraordinarily painful impact it had on his receivers. As it turned out, he was exceptional for much of the fantasy regular season, and then sharply regressed starting Week 11. Inaccurate throws, an unusually high number of dropped passes, and potentially lingering injuries made Ben unstartable for five straight weeks. He'll enter 2021 as, once again, one of the NFL's biggest boom-bust quarterbacks, and I'll gladly take a late-round flyer on him given his high-upside receiving corps.
Elsewhere, I haven't trusted James Conner the past two summers. His floor is atrocious, and in July I warned that "it's hard to imagine rookie Anthony McFarland (RB-57) and Benny Snell (RB-76) riding the pine all year. Big picture: I don't want to invest in Conner, and would rather leave this backfield to my opponents." I was 2-for-3 on Pittsburgh's receivers, writing that JuJu Smith Schuster's WR-11 ADP "makes me nervous" (he's the #16 scorer, so not far off from universal expectations, but still not the WR1 most expected). I also missed big and hit big on the other two primary receivers: "Diontae Johnson (WR-39) can meet or exceed expectations only if Claypool busts (highly improbable); I doubt Johnson cracks the top 50 this year." Yikes. But also, "The value pick in this corps is rookie Chase Claypool (WR-81)." Hoorah. And I was down on the "enigmatic" Eric Ebron (TE-19 ADP), predicting a "45/475/6 season at best." Assuming he rests this week, he'll finish at 56/558/5 and probably 14th or 15th overall.
RAVENS -- As with just about everyone, I thought Lamar Jackson would be elite. Not much more needs to be said. If he's ranked outside the top 5 next summer (entirely possible given the sizable amount of elite and near-elite talent at this position), I'd love to draft him. And if Baltimore lands a true #1 receiver (like Buffalo did with Stefon Diggs), Lamar could be primed for his second 400-point effort. Regarding the backfield, my July 25 write-up hit pretty solidly. I wrote that "I wouldn't bet on any Baltimore back posting top-20 numbers this year" (J.K. Dobbins leads the pack at #31). I also predicted Mark Ingram (RB-27 ADP) would fade the second half of the season, while Dobbins (RB-34 ADP) was worth reaching for early in dynasty leagues. However, I agreed with the fantasy universe that Gus Edwards (RB-93) wouldn't be draftable, not anticipating he could rise to a 1B position.
It was interesting looking back on what I wrote about the Ravens' receivers. I remarked that Marquise Brown (WR-30) still wasn't a reliable fantasy starter (that turned out to be true), and also how strange--and deserved--it was that no other wideout was ranked inside the top 90. Willie Snead ended up being the only other WR to crack the top 90 (he's currently at #77. I tagged Devin Duvernay (WR-146) as "the best value pick of the group, and he could be the team's #2 WR by 2021." We'll have a better sense of this after the next NFL draft. And I didn't trust Mark Andrews at his TE-3 ADP. In fairness, he's currently #3 in TE points per game. But also in fairness, his production has dipped about 10% vs. last season.
BROWNS -- Some of you know my history with Baker Mayfield. In the summer of 2019, when his QB ADP was 5, I ranked him outside the top 12, below Jimmy G. Jimmy outperformed him that year in what had to be one of the "craziest" accurate predictions I've made. The reality is, I've never trusted Baker and thought Cleveland made a mistake drafting him at #1. All that aside, on July 17 I explained why there was upside to his QB-14 ADP. Had he and the offense not collapsed against the Jets last week, he'd be #15 right now instead of 18. And of course, losing OBJ hurt. But let's call it what it is: I thought he'd be a back-end QB1, and I was plainly wrong. Next year I'll probably bet on him as a back-end QB1 again.
Among Cleveland's other key players, I was wrong to doubt Nick Chubb's RB-8 ADP (he's exceeded that on a per-game basis), and I was correct to hype Kareem Hunt at his RB-28 ADP. However, watch for Hunt's 2021 ADP to be somewhere around 16-18, which would make him a little too rich for me. This kind of overvaluing is common for players whose stats are unsustainably inflated (two of his five best games came when Chubb was sidelined); many drafters make decisions based on numbers rather than the context surrounding those numbers.
I also whiffed on OBJ (WR-12 ADP), thinking he'd be a good buy; he wasn't anywhere close to that even before he went down. And I loved Jarvis Landry as a bargain at his WR-29 ADP, but Baker's down season, combined with the development of other wideouts, have limited Landry's production. Finally, I thought Austin Hooper (TE-12 ADP) would finish in the top 7, stating that "Cleveland didn't shell out $23 million guaranteed to Hooper to hand him a 50/500/3 line." Well, Hooper's currently at 42/398/3 and probably will wrap up the year around 47/450/3. In other words, the Browns have wasted a ton of money on a guy they're using like Gerald Everett. Regardless of whether they reach the playoffs, I'd expect they'll re-evaluate their offensive approach this offseason and return in 2021 with a greater focus on getting the ball to one of the league's top tight ends. In other words, don't give up on Hooper as a 2021 TE1 just yet.
BENGALS -- Some team had to finish in the AFC North cellar. Given injuries to their franchise QB and RB, it had to be Cincinnati. On July 1 I wrote that "I like Joe Burrow at his QB-16 ADP." I'll like him again next year when he's ranked even lower. That often happens with injured players; many people overlook them the following season. Burrow is the #15 fantasy QB based on per-game points, and next year he could easily crack the top 12 if he's fully healthy by Week 1. Joe Mixon also should be a bargain next summer. Gio Bernard isn't a realistic threat for a timeshare. Mixon is easily the most dynamic runner in this backfield and should crack 275+ touches and top-14 production, with a shot at the top 8 if Burrow picks up where he left off.
I tagged A.J. Green as a "huge wild card" at his WR-30 ADP. I'm shocked the team didn't trade him or Tyler Boyd. I liked Tee Higgins (WR-64 ADP), and the rookie probably will be the team's #1 fantasy wideout again next season. Green has proven to be post-prime and expendable. If they part ways, it's reasonable to think Higgins and Boyd will be top-25 options. And while I believed this summer "Drew Sample has the higher ceiling" over C.J. Uzomah, neither were appealing. Sample should improve next season, though it's hard to imagine him in the top 20.