There are so many fascinating stats coming out of last night's game. But first, a huge congratulations to all you winners. This has been a tough season for obviously unusual reasons, and for the usual obvious reasons. Persevering and taking the crown is no small feat. Doing it in the face of last-minute lineup changes and scouring waivers for deep-dive flyers is a whole other accomplishment.
Now to the stats: Last night Josh Allen took over the #1 fantasy QB spot. With the Bills still competing for an all-important 2 seed, #2 QB Kyler Murray hobbled, and #3 QB Patrick Mahomes unlikely to play, I'd expect Allen to still be #1 when it's all over. If that happens, he'd be the third shocking #1 QB in a row. Consensus QB2 Mahomes did it in 2018, and then consensus QB2 Lamar Jackson did it last year. Allen had a preseason QB-9 ADP. As you'll see below, I pegged him as a bargain in July, but never anticipated he'd be elite. Along with the forgotten Aaron Rodgers (preseason QB-12 ADP), underestimated (by me too) Ryan Tannehill (QB-21 ADP) and rookie phenom Justin Herbert (QB-36 ADP), Allen was a full-on fantasy difference maker.
Other notable stats I enjoyed researching: Cam Newton hasn't thrown for more than one TD in 17 straight starts. This streak began on the heels of 11 straight games with 2+ passing TDs. It's a stark reflection of his pre-injury and post-injury abilities (among other things). Also, last night was Bill Belichick's worst home loss as the Patriots' head coach, beating the previous record set a couple months ago against the 49ers. Also, little-used TE Lee Smith corralled his sixth TD since 2018--only two fewer than A.J. Green and Sammy Watkins during that span.
And maybe my favorite stat of the night: Stefon Diggs' huge night meant three WRs hit 40+ fantasy points in Week 16. Heading into the week, this had happened only six times all year. It's happened only 22 times the previous four seasons. So to put this in perspective, a WR has reached 40+ points 31 times in the past 85 weeks--and roughly 10% of those occurrences were this week. Someone out there started Diggs, Davante Adams, and Mike Evans. Congratulations on crushing it.
Now here's a quick rundown of the AFC East's fantasy surprises and non-surprises . . .
BILLS -- As mentioned above, Allen's ascension didn't surprise me, but I never imagined he could be a top-3 guy. I missed on Buffalo's backfield, believing either Devin Singletary or (more likely) Zack Moss would become a consistent RB streamer at worst. Instead, we'll have to wait another year to see if one of them takes the lead. Assuming Moss is once again ranked outside the top 40 next summer, I'll gladly take a flyer on him in deeper leagues in case (a) Singletary gets hurt or (b) Allen gets hurt and is replaced with a less mobile backup.
And with Diggs currently the #3 fantasy WR and Cole Beasley at #20, here's what I wrote about the receiving corps this summer: "Diggs (WR-27) is a good bet for 70/1,000/7 and has strong upside as his team's clear-cut #1. Keep in mind, John Brown posted a 72/1,060/6 line last season to finish 20th in WR scoring. Meanwhile, John Brown (WR-52) and Cole Beasley (WR-71) will both make a play for #2 honors, and each is a great bet to exceed expectations. Again, Allen has nowhere to go but up as a passer, so don't view this receiving unit in 2019 terms. All three guys are undervalued."
DOLPHINS -- In my July 3rd Miami rundown, I wrote that Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-32 ADP) "should be a consistent top-20 option as long as he's on the field, and an occasional top-8 producer." The key to this prediction was understanding what he did with a far worse supporting cast in 2019, recognizing that Tua Tagovailoa probably wouldn't be ready to contribute until midseason at the earliest, and appreciating the Dolphins' relatively easier schedule based in part on New England's depleted defense. And he was a QB1 five times--including three top-8 efforts.
Elsewhere, I and essentially the entire fantasy universe overlooked Myles Gaskin, who wasn't even in the top 150 RB ADP (even Patrick Laird was well ahead of him). If the team had invested in other components instead of two unnecessary RB signings (Jordan Howard and Matt Breida), they might have competed for the AFC East title. At wideout, I cautioned against overpaying for DeVante Parker and urged folks to invest instead in the ridiculously underpriced Preston Williams (WR-55 ADP). With Lynn Bowden possibly on the rise, it will be interesting to see if any of these guys are WR3+ material next year. Finally, I failed to appreciate Mike Gesicki's growth, labeling him as no better than a top 12-14 TE rather than as a true TE1.
PATRIOTS -- So much can be said about a team that's changed so much in the past 12 months. To keep it simple, I pegged Cam Newton as a nothing-to-lose flyer on July 27, saying he's "worth a reach at 18-20" vs. a QB-23 ADP. Currently sitting at #20, he's done what I expected. However, he's fallen well short of a ceiling I thought he had a shot at reaching. At RB I labeled Damien Harris (RB-61) as "the clear value pick in this backfield," which is how it's worked out. If Harris had remained healthy, he was on pace to be a TD-dependent top-35 RB. Of course, when Rex Burkhead is a team's best fantasy RB at #42 (crazy, I know), that spells trouble. Unless this team sheds a running back or two, this RB corps will be a fantasy mess heading into 2021.
At wideout, everything fell apart with Julian Edelman's injury and N'Keal Harry's lack of development. The unheralded Jakobi Meyers became the default #1, but even he's only the 57th best fantasy WR. If the Patriots can figure out their QB situation, there's value to be had in an Edelman-Meyers focused passing attack--or more likely, a passing attack that features a field-stretching #1. And as I've mentioned before, this is the first time since the Gronk era when New England hasn't had a fantasy-relevant TE. Expect that to change this offseason.
JETS -- Five of the first seven NFL players drafted in 2018 have become Pro Bowlers. The other two--both can't-miss franchise QBs--have not. One is Baker Mayfield. The other, Sam Darnold. I couldn't have been more wrong about Darnold this season, sadly predicting a 4,000/28/14 line on July 11. While that might seem like grounds for unliking this page, consider that he missed four games, he lost capable pass-catcher Le'Veon Bell, and his top three receivers all missed 4-7 games. But these are also excuses. The fact is, Darnold hasn't looked like an NFL starter. And for that matter, neither has Le'Veon Bell. This summer I hyped three undervalued top-30 RBs I was targeting in drafts: Bell (RB-18 ADP), David Johnson (RB-19), and David Montgomery (RB-28). The first busted, the second has been neutral, and the third has crushed it. But I can't overlook how wrong I was about Bell.
At wideout, I correctly tagged Jamison Crowder (WR-50 ADP) as an obvious bargain, but I didn't expect him to crack the top 30. Instead, he's #20 on a per-game basis. And I thought the widely underafted Breshad Perriman or Denzel Mims would step up. Maybe a better quarterback would change their outlooks. And Chris Herndon failed to deliver on even my modest TE2 prediction.
Not sure if these rundowns are helpful. If so, I'll keep knocking them out these final six days before closing up shop for the winter. If not, pester me so I get the message, and tell me if something else would be more useful.