Each summer, rankings / average draft positions guide millions of drafts. As we head for the home stretch of the fantasy regular season, I thought it would be interesting to look back on how consensus preseason projections have panned out.
QBs have been the most predictable. Nine preseason QB1s (top 12) based on ADP are currently top-12 scorers. Of the three who didn't make it, two fell short because of injuries (Dak Prescott and Drew Brees). That makes the third--Matt Ryan--arguably one of the most disappointing preseason QB1s in terms of per-game production. Lamar Jackson easily is the most disappointing given how early most managers drafted him.
On the positive side, Big Ben, Ryan Tannehill, and Justin Herbert are QB1s despite not being preseason QB1s. In hindsight, it's hard to believe Tyrod Taylor started Week 1 for the Chargers. And Kyler Murray (QB-6 ADP) has been a game-changing talent, leading all fantasy QBs and on pace to score more QB fantasy points than any other quarterback in history.
RBs has been extraordinarily unpredictable, as expected. This is why I didn't overpay for them this summer. The top 2 preseason backs have come undone by injuries (CMC and Saquon Barkley). Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, and Austin Ekeler also have disappointed due to injuries. That means only half of the top 12 have exceeded or come close to matching expectations.
On the positive side, so many off-the-radar guys have come up big. I repeat: so many. There's no excuse for missing out on RBs if you load up on handcuffs at the draft and use your waiver picks wisely. James Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and Mike Davis have been top-9 producers. It happens every year. It's all about increasing your probability of striking it rich.
At wideout, Michael Thomas (WR-1 ADP), Julio Jones (WR-4), Chris Godwin (WR-6), Kenny Golladay (WR-8), and OBJ (WR-11) have frustrated managers because of injuries. Mike Evans (WR-7) also hasn't achieved anticipated success because of increased receiving competition and some injury issues (though I adamantly warned against him and Godwin this summer--not because of injuries, but because I couldn't see Tom Brady feeding everyone consistently). DJ Moore and Amari Cooper are also a little outside the top 12, meaning only four of the preseason top-12 have been top-12 scorers.
On the positive side, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, and Stefon Diggs are nestled in the top 5, while Tyler Lockett, (the suspended) Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson have comfortably exceeded projections. It's hard not to notice that top 12 includes two Seahawks (high-powered QB) and two Vikings (not-high-powered QB). Fascinating.
And at TE, near-universal top-4 talents George Kittle and Zach Ertz haven't been able to stay healthy--though even if Ertz had, he was headed toward a major letdown regardless. And the four back-end TE1s (Tyler Higbee, Jared Cook, Austin Hooper, and Noah Fant) have been somewhere between minor and major disappointments. All told, six of the preseason TE1s haven't offered TE1 value, and realistically only a recovered Kittle could make up ground.
On the positive side, one of my favorite preseason TE bargains, Jonnu Smith (TE-18 ADP), is ranked 7th among fantasy TEs through Week 12. And a guy I thought would fade, Robert Tonyan, has parlayed a handful of huge games into a #4 ranking. Also, T.J. Hockenson was no better than a late-round flyer in most drafts, but he's sitting at #3. Eric Ebron, Hayden Hurst, and Dalton Schultz round out the TE1 surprises.
That means 25 of the 48 (52%) preseason top-tier positional players have produced as top-tier players. Several other top-tier performers were drafted marginally later (for example, back-end WR2s like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett). And the remaining guys were either late-round adds or waiver fodder.
As we know, this is how fantasy works. In the early rounds, we want guys who can stay healthy--and whose quarterbacks can stay healthy. In the middle and later rounds, we're hoping for breakout candidates. When the season starts, we're eyeballing potential depth chart shifts and injury impacts to find short- or long-term fantasy starters.
On average, only about half our players will perform as expected or better. If we can up that percentage to 60% or higher--including one or two surprising top-tier players (RB1, WR1, etc.)--that's our competitive advantage.