Before last night, Jared Goff was 0-2 vs. Tom Brady, completing 33 of 70 passes for one TD and three interceptions while taking eight sacks. In the real world, yesterday was monumental. Goff finally outplayed Brady despite not being able to keep the defense honest with the running game. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods were the two best receivers on the field, despite going against four mega stars in Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Gronk.
The Rams have 2-3 losable games remaining, meaning they should finish no worse than 10-6. Meanwhile, the Bucs are now officially struggling, owning a 2-4 record vs. teams with a record of .500 or better. If they can't get by the Chiefs next week, they'll be 7-5 entering a favorable final stretch, but probably won't be better than a 5-seed, and could easily fall to 6 or 7 if they lose once to Atlanta, Minnesota, or Detroit (surely not Detroit, but the other two are tougher than their records show).
And as good as Brady appears on the stat sheet, one has to wonder if this team still would have been 7-4--or better--if someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Ryan Fitzpatrick were quarterbacking. The mystique of Brady is that it's hard to question his abilities. But he's now on pace for a 4,298/36/13 line and a 65% completion rate, which would be a near repeat of his 2018 season with the Patriots, when his top non-Gronk receivers were Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett. Although systems and backfields and other variables change from team to team and from year to year, the fact is 2018 Brady probably would be doing better throwing to two elite wideouts, an apparently still talented Antonio Brown, and a capable supporting cast.
Given Tampa Bay's fantasy playoff schedule vs. weak defenses, Brady and his primary teammates should post some of their best numbers of the season when it matters most. The same goes for the Rams, though their backfields remain huge question marks. Each week it seems I write something like "Well, it looks like [Leonard Fournette / Ronald Jones] is the 1A back." Fantasy success hinges on consistency when we need consistency. Very few managers are happy with inconsistent backfield leaders. Fournette's TD last night is yet another reminder that the Bucs' RB situation is painfully unpredictable.
The same goes for the Rams, though we've known this for weeks. I've been pushing folks to sell high on Darrell Henderson since late September. This was never going to be a one-person backfield, and their offense isn't built to support two starting RBs in fantasy, let alone three.