How important is tonight's game for the 6-2 Titans? A win would give them a two-game cushion in the AFC South. A loss would push them down to a 6-seed if the regular season ended tomorrow. And with their next games being in Baltimore and then in Indy, things could get dicey fast.
As for the Colts, as I've mentioned before, Phillip Rivers is in an ideal landing spot thanks to a strong defense, good pass-catching backs, and capable tight ends. He doesn't need to air it out (he's 28th in average completed air yards on pass attempts) and can let his running game and defense win games. That said, he's still a turnover liability. In three losses he has one touchdown and five interceptions. In six of eight contests he hasn't been remotely fantasy startable. In other words, the Colts probably could have done better, but Rivers could have done a lot worse than wind up on a team that (sometimes) can overcome his declining talent.
Indy's backfield is obviously a mess. While Jonathan Taylor remains the longer-term favorite, we can't ignore Jordan Wilkins significantly out-snapping and out-touching him since returning from their Week 7 bye. It's hard to justify starting any of them as more than a TD-dependent RB3/4. While it's highly likely at least one of them (or Nyheim Hines) will score tonight against a beatable Tennessee D, only the coaching staff and players know the game plan.
On the receiving end, there's not much room for a wideout to shine in this offense. Most of Rivers' passes go to RBs and TEs. Michael Pittman is a better dynasty play if they upgrade at QB next season. It's a shame given the Titans' anemic pass defense. Colts wide receivers are on pace for 2,254 years this year. By comparison, the Titans are on pace for 2,592 WR yards. So it's a roll of the dice anytime you start a Colt player, period--even on a night when they should rack up 25+ points.
For Tennessee, only 14 of Ryan Tannehill's completions (8%) have gone to running backs, compared to 30% for Rivers. Tannehill has thrived or failed by throwing to his wideouts. He's #3 in the league in average completed air yards. The Titans might have to lean on him more than usual, as Indy's D is averaging only 3.3 YPC while yielding less than one rushing score per game. They're also #1 in opposing QB rating.
I'm expecting the Titans to try to establish the run, feeding Derrick Henry and keeping their defense off the field. That mean a more conservative passing game, at least early on (Jonnu Smith should benefit) and more tempered expectations for A.J. Brown.
While Henry is a weekly must-start option, this is one of those weeks where I don't see him reaching 12 points. Maybe 24 rushes for 88 yards and a catch. As for Tannehill, it's hard to see him in the top 18.