We have to be willing to take risks. The questions is always "Which ones?" Every week there are positive and negative surprises. This week 100+ fantasy experts once again have offered their positional rankings. Last week I picked out 10 likely "mistakes" and hit on eight of them. Here's what I think they've gotten wrong this time:
At quarterback, Jake Luton fared decently in his NFL debut against a lacking defense. He'll get another beatable defense tomorrow facing the Packers. Luton's consensus QB-25 ranking assumes he'll be one of the fourth worst among this week's starters. I like him in the top 18 based on game flow, with Green Bay posting enough points to force Jacksonville to play more aggressively. On the flip side, Kyler Murray's recent insanity has included games against the Jets, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Dolphins. His overall QB-1 ranking won't materialize against the Bills; I believe he'll finish outside the top 7 and wouldn't be surprised if he has his worst output of the season.
At running back, Duke Johnson (RB-19) is a likely top-14 option against the Browns thanks to 6-8 receptions and 80+ total yards with David Johnson remaining sidelined. On the flip side, experts are still clinging to the belief Melvin Gordon is startable. Possibly, but doubtfully. His RB-16 ADP suggests numbers I can't envision while he's playing alongside the arguably more talented Phillip Lindsay.
At wideout, Rashard Higgins (WR-51) and Jarvis Landry (WR-31) get do-overs after Cleveland's pre-bye, weather-inducing flop. Both should finish at least 10 spots higher than their rankings. On the flip side, Cooper Kupp is coming off a bye that followed a 20-target outing. Yes, a 20-target outing, which by the way produced "only" 22 fantasy points. Too often Kupp has been unexceptional by Kupp standards, and I think his WR-11 ranking assumes too much, even in a plus matchup.
At tight end, Gerald Everett (TE-19) is probably the best TE streamer this week. Again, Kupp won't see 20 targets, but Everett realistically could match his previous game's total of nine. Everett has assumed an enlarging role in recent weeks and has strong double-digit potential. On the flip side, Rob Gronkowski (TE-7) is again overrated thanks to (as I keep highlighting) a stacked receiver corps. Gronk's averaging 17 points in games where he's scored and 4.5 in games where he hasn't. That's too much variance for a supposedly must-start TE.