Mike Vanacore and I had a good back-and-forth on whether the Panthers are a postseason contender. We actually aren't far off. My thinks they have an "outside chance" thanks to a likely 4-2 record over their next six games. I view them as much more of a longshot, as they have to survive four tough contests (Bucs, Packers, and Saints twice), and I don't think 9-7 is enough to get in this year--even with the extra playoff spot.
This issue matters because of Christian McCaffrey. A few hours ago (I'm writing this at 1:30am), the Panthers tweeted "Something is coming . . . 10.29.20." So maybe he'll return tonight. Or maybe it means Carolina's knocking 5% off attendee parking.
If CMC returns to his 2019 self, then perhaps the addition of Robby Anderson and Teddy Bridgewater will be enough to power this offense on a series of wins and keep CMC on the field throughout the fantasy playoffs. But I still seriously doubt it, and even if he does, will Mike Davis drop CMC from an elite RB to a back-end RB1? McCaffrey had an monstrous 403 touches last season. This year he was on pace for 384 before going down. Lowering that pace to a more sustainable 325 could shave 15% or more off his production.
So if he's back tonight, he'll be the biggest fantasy story of the day, and among all non-injured players, probably the week. He's either a 25-touch uber-bellcow or a 20-touch bellcow with Mike Davis chipping in, and he's either playing out the season or sitting out the final games once the Panthers are (much more likely than not) mathematically eliminated. If you have him, whether he plays or not, you have to hope Carolina prevails tonight. If they don't, with Kansas City and Tampa Bay on deck, their season could get out of hand in a hurry, and with it the likelihood that CMC plays when you need him most.
Elsewhere tonight, we need to continue monitoring Todd Gurley, whose league-leading seven touchdowns overshadow some warning signs. In his last great season--in what might turn out to be his final great season (2018)--34% of Gurley's fantasy points came on touchdowns. Last year it climbed to 38%, and it's again 38% this year. His lack of receptions and his un-Gurley-like rushing efficiency have made him too TD-dependent for an RB. His one exceptional on-the-field performance in 2020 came against these same Panthers in Week 5. But he remains a risky RB1 every week until/unless his targets increase.
Finally, Atlanta's D is worst in the league in passing yards and passing TDs. If Bridgewater and Matt Ryan don't combine for 600+ yards and 5+ scores, I'll be shocked.
And I'm picking the Falcons.