The scoring wasn't as high as I expected, partly because of Calvin Ridley's injury, and partly because Atlanta's offense kept stalling deep in Carolina territory. But last night played out largely as expected, and if you've been reading this blog for a while, hopefully you've already capitalized--or are ready to capitalize.
First, Toddy Gurley continues to be the NFL's most overrated "bellcow." TDs are keeping him afloat. Physically he's undeserving of a large workload, and Brian Hill clearly deserves more run. Gurley hasn't cleared 2.7 YPC in any of his last three contests against the Panthers, Lions, or Vikings. It's hard to imagine the Falcons re-signing him this coming offseason. Given his deceptively "strong" fantasy numbers, if he were on my team, I'd be shopping him relentlessly. Not desperately, but relentlessly. He entered the week as the #5 fantasy RB. So sell him as an RB1--a mid-range if possible, but I'd settle for low-end--and consider yourself lucky when he invariably starts racking up single-digit performances.
Elsewhere, obviously keep an eye on Ridley. Julio Jones has reasserted himself as the alpha receiver, and Hayden Hurst now has three straight double-digit outings. If your opponent has Ridley and is below .500, and you're feeling pretty comfortable, this is the time to pounce, as it's possible Ridley won't return for three weeks (if he has to sit next week, and then they have a bye).
On the other side of the ball, Mike Vanacore owes me a beer (just having fun, Mike). Carolina simply is not a playoff team. If you sold uber-high on CMC earlier this week when it looked like he might return, congratulations. Next up are the Chiefs and Bucs and a possible 3-7 record before their schedule eases with the Lions and Vikings. Of course I could be wrong about McCaffrey; the Panthers might run him ragged like they did last year. Nothing to lose, right? I just don't see it. He's their 24-year-old franchise back. A bad injury in December could keep him out for a chunk of next season. So I'll repeat earlier warnings going back to the summer: Sell high and snag Davis for cheap. We'll see soon enough if I'm right or stupid.