Antonio Brown's short-lived stint in New England last year has given way to AB's (longer?) stint in Tampa Bay. Same QB. Different weather. And instead of being a potential #1 for Bill Belichick, he'll now compete with two preseason top-10 fantasy wideouts (when healthy). The signing would be obscene if we knew AB would be at least 75% of his prime self.
But who knows? There's a chemistry risk when you bring in someone like that. Mike Evans used to be the alpha. Then last year Chris Godwin became, at the very least, the co-alpha. Then they signed Gronk and now AB, and you have to wonder if Tom Brady is paging Joe Thuney or some other former New England linemen.
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Now to this week's bargains and busts. Last week I was 7-3, meaning on unconventional picks, I hit on 70%--guys like D'Andre Swift (RB-33), Christian Kirk (WR-40), and Trey Burton (TE-19), who were almost universally undervalued by experts. Here's this week's group:
At quarterback, while I get Tampa Bay has a good D, Derek Carr (QB-21) is coming off a stellar performance against a stellar Chiefs pass defense and is nearing must-start territory if he shows well Sunday. I believe he will. On the flip side, Cam Newton's QB-10 rankings seems a bit aggressive.
At running back, J.D. McKissic (RB-26) has 19 receptions in his last three contests and is facing the atrocious Cowboys. Washington hasn't had a very exciting offense in years, but McKissic is a capable playmaker with an RB3 floor (8+ points) and a decent shot at top-16 production (14+ points). On the flip side, James Conner (RB-7) is a trap pick. He's been home for about 35-40 straight days (not that I track his movements, but Pittsburgh's schedule is front-loaded with home games). Although this doesn't matter as much as it did in a pre-pandemic world, traveling to Tennessee to face a disciplined 5-0 team . . . I'm not seeing Conner thrive.
At wideout, for the third straight week Christian Kirk (WR-34) is undervalued. I've called him each of these weeks, so hopefully he'll go 3-0 for me after tomorrow. And while it's not yet safe to trust A.J. Green, his WR-47 ranking suggests last week's rebound was a fluke. Targets are key, and if we remove his hamstring-injury performance in Week 5 (one target), he's averaging a healthy nine per game. No long a safe fantasy starter, Green nonetheless should be viewed as a WR3+ against Cleveland. On the flip side, I don't trust Nick Foles feeding Allen Robinson (WR-10) against Jalen Ramsey.
At tight end, I can't in good faith pick Noah Fant (TE-17), even though he's been a good bet to return for much of the week. "Predicting" he'd outperform expectations wouldn't be sporty. So I'll roll with Greg Olsen (TE-21) in a game that should eclipse 50+ points, making Olsen an okay bet for a 3-30-1 line. On the flp side, Robert Tonyan at #6 baffles me. This offense is a lot different when Davante Adams is in it.