Does anyone remember a time when five teammates hit 60+ receiving yards apiece? While no one on the opposing team hit 40?
For most of last night, it looked like the Chiefs vs. Lamar Jackson, and Jackson never had a chance. Those still believing Baltimore is a Super Bowl team have a wonder whether they can get past Kansas City this year, next year, or even the year after. Mahomes and the Chiefs are now 3-0 against Jackson and the Ravens since their first meeting in December 2018. While the games have been somewhat-to-very close, KC's firepower is unmatched. This is a 16-0 team if they stay healthy, which of course is as big an "if" this year as any.
And now, as crazy as it sounds, five QBs are on pace this year to score the most QB fantasy points in history: Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray. I'll say right now if Josh Allen has the best fantasy QB season of all time, I'm throwing in the towel (slight sarcasm). But let's take a moment to take stock of what's happening:
Last season there were 10,369 NFL first downs, 93 less than the year before. In fact, first downs have been gradually increasing in the league for years--but only gradually. This year the NFL is on pace for 11,344. That's a mammoth increase compared to the usual jump of 50-100 first downs from season to season.
Or take passing yards: last year QBs threw for 128,911. This year they're on pace for 134,773. Last year NFL teams racked up 11,680 points. This year they're on pace for 13,045.
Maybe COVID opt-outs had a marginal effect (such as for the Patriots). But the tangible increase in production can't easily be explained away by a single factor. Having five historically unparalleled fantasy QBs through three weeks is a rarity, and there's no sign it'll slow down soon. Allen has a terrific intra-divisional schedule. Mahomes looks unstoppable as expected. Wilson's Seahawks are as pass-friendly as ever, and if Chris Carson misses time, Wilson will be leaned on even more. Dak--my favorite preseason QB "bargain"--is the only guy not named Patrick to have a virtually injury-proof receiving corps, in that he could lose two starters and still put up a 300/3 line. And Murray is far better than I gave him credit for last summer, and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and muted play of Kenyan Drake make him a strong threat for 400+ points.
And of course, Lamar could still easily match or exceed last year's #2-all-time numbers.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers have a combined 47/2 passing TD/INT line. And frighteningly, Kyler is on pace to top Mahomes' 2018 fantasy record despite sitting on a 4/5 passing line, which is insane think about for more than five seconds. (I was thinking about it all day yesterday and was worried I wouldn't be able to go to sleep.)
(But I went to sleep just fine; thanks for asking.)
All this to say, an unusual COVID year has also been an unusual offensive year. If 4-5 QBs crack the golden barrier of 400 points, it could change the way managers draft next year.