I'm thankful that even in this odd NFL preseason, where so little is actually happening--mostly just injuries and contract disputes and the occasional camp observations--I still don't feel the need to discuss Kalen Ballage.
And with that, here's round 8's biggest bargain and bust, based on Fantasy Pros' national ADP averages, and assuming a 12-team league draft:
85 Tarik Cohen CHI (11) RB32
86 Marvin Jones DET (5) WR36
87 Deebo Samuel SF (11) WR37
88 Josh Allen BUF (11) QB10
89 Phillip Lindsay DEN (8) RB33
90 J.K. Dobbins BAL (8) RB34
91 Jordan Howard MIA (11) RB35
92 Matt Breida MIA (11) RB36
93 Aaron Rodgers GB (5) QB11
94 Christian Kirk ARI (8) WR38
95 Kerryon Johnson DET (5) RB37
96 Jared Cook NO (6) TE10
The deeper we go, the more injuries become factors in our decision making. With Saquon Barkley, you know his fortunes rise and fall largely with him. Sure, there are offensive line considerations, and whether Daniel Jones can grow in his role. But more or less, Barkley will determine what Barkley does.
As we progress through drafts, players' fortunes rise and fall increasingly based on others. This latest grouping is a prime example. Which Miami back will finish in the top 30 (or even top 24)? Can Kerryon Johnson be a 1A? Is David Montgomery's injury serious enough to elevate Cohen? Will Deebo Samuel lead all Niner wideouts, or can a hobbled Brandon Aiyuk compete for the #1 role?
We draft with the information we have. And right now, Dobbins is the biggest bargain in this group. While most of these guys could make a play for bargain status, no one seems more reliable than Dobbins. Raven RBs earned nearly 400 carries last year. Mark Ingram is going on 31 and is a significant regression candidate after a surprisingly effective, healthy season. Dobbins is the future of this backfield and is a near lock to finish in the top 28, with a solid shot at the top 20 if he can eventually edge out Ingram atop the depth chart. For perspective, Latavius Murray was last year's 28th best RB. Dobbins' RB1 upside (if Ingram goes down) makes him the clear winner in round 8.
On the bust side, the challenges are the same. I can't say Marvin Jones, because a couple days ago he was in the round 7 grouping, so let's leave him there for the sake of this discussion. Everyone else seems to be priced appropriately. Jared Cook arguably has the lowest ceiling, but that's not enough to call him an automatic bust. Or is it? I want to say Howard or Breida, but Howard posted RB3 numbers when healthy last year despite earning only 12 touches per game, while Breida is expected to get more aerial work, elevating his PPR value.
In the end, I'm coming back to Cook. It's not that he'll flop, necessarily. But best-case he's a safe pick, finishing around 8th-12th among TEs. Every other player has a higher ceiling and a similar floor (assuming full health). So if you're in round 8 staring at some of these guys, remember that you don't need Cook if you already have a TE, and you don't want Cook if you don't.
And with that, here's round 8's biggest bargain and bust, based on Fantasy Pros' national ADP averages, and assuming a 12-team league draft:
85 Tarik Cohen CHI (11) RB32
86 Marvin Jones DET (5) WR36
87 Deebo Samuel SF (11) WR37
88 Josh Allen BUF (11) QB10
89 Phillip Lindsay DEN (8) RB33
90 J.K. Dobbins BAL (8) RB34
91 Jordan Howard MIA (11) RB35
92 Matt Breida MIA (11) RB36
93 Aaron Rodgers GB (5) QB11
94 Christian Kirk ARI (8) WR38
95 Kerryon Johnson DET (5) RB37
96 Jared Cook NO (6) TE10
The deeper we go, the more injuries become factors in our decision making. With Saquon Barkley, you know his fortunes rise and fall largely with him. Sure, there are offensive line considerations, and whether Daniel Jones can grow in his role. But more or less, Barkley will determine what Barkley does.
As we progress through drafts, players' fortunes rise and fall increasingly based on others. This latest grouping is a prime example. Which Miami back will finish in the top 30 (or even top 24)? Can Kerryon Johnson be a 1A? Is David Montgomery's injury serious enough to elevate Cohen? Will Deebo Samuel lead all Niner wideouts, or can a hobbled Brandon Aiyuk compete for the #1 role?
We draft with the information we have. And right now, Dobbins is the biggest bargain in this group. While most of these guys could make a play for bargain status, no one seems more reliable than Dobbins. Raven RBs earned nearly 400 carries last year. Mark Ingram is going on 31 and is a significant regression candidate after a surprisingly effective, healthy season. Dobbins is the future of this backfield and is a near lock to finish in the top 28, with a solid shot at the top 20 if he can eventually edge out Ingram atop the depth chart. For perspective, Latavius Murray was last year's 28th best RB. Dobbins' RB1 upside (if Ingram goes down) makes him the clear winner in round 8.
On the bust side, the challenges are the same. I can't say Marvin Jones, because a couple days ago he was in the round 7 grouping, so let's leave him there for the sake of this discussion. Everyone else seems to be priced appropriately. Jared Cook arguably has the lowest ceiling, but that's not enough to call him an automatic bust. Or is it? I want to say Howard or Breida, but Howard posted RB3 numbers when healthy last year despite earning only 12 touches per game, while Breida is expected to get more aerial work, elevating his PPR value.
In the end, I'm coming back to Cook. It's not that he'll flop, necessarily. But best-case he's a safe pick, finishing around 8th-12th among TEs. Every other player has a higher ceiling and a similar floor (assuming full health). So if you're in round 8 staring at some of these guys, remember that you don't need Cook if you already have a TE, and you don't want Cook if you don't.