Amazingly, we're nearing the start of the season. One more ADP bargain/bust column, and then on to the strangest night of football in a long time, with Kansas City hosting Houston in what should be a thrilling fantasy matchup. As always, I'm taking this season week by week. Strange things might--and probably will--happen. So let's just enjoy the ride and see how things shake out.
And with that, here's the best bargain and bust in round 13:
145 Nyheim Hines IND (7) RB49
146 Ryquell Armstead JAC (7) RB50
147 Dallas Goedert PHI (9) TE17
148 Chase Edmonds ARI (8) RB51
149 Ryan Tannehill TEN (7) QB18
150 Chicago Bears DST (11) DST6
151 Joe Burrow CIN (9) QB19
152 Jimmy Garoppolo SF (11) QB20
153 Jack Doyle IND (7) TE18
154 Sammy Watkins KC (10) WR56
155 Curtis Samuel CAR (13) WR57
156 Jonnu Smith TEN (7) TE19
Gotta say, this is not my favorite grouping, though that should be obvious. Hines has a tougher hill to climb playing with a better pass-catching back in Jonathan Taylor, while Marlon Mack isn't going anywhere. Watkins and Samuel could finish as their respective team's fourth best receiver (including TE). Jack Doyle seems like a safe bet, though as previously stated, I'd be surprised if he cracks the top 12. Jonnu Smith has a comparable floor and ceiling for a slightly cheaper price (and actually, if there were preseason games, I think we would have seen Jonnu's breakout potential).
Still, there's one guy who stands out as the most obvious fantasy bargain--a sure-fire steal at his price point. Last summer I pushed two 20-something ADP QBs: Matthew Stafford and Jimmy G. The former is now priced closer to his likely potential. The latter still isn't getting enough respect. Jimmy was last year's 14th best fantasy QB despite returning from a serious injury that often limits QBs in their first season back. If you think he'll match last year's roughly 4,000/27 output, then why let him slide? And if you think, as I do, that he'll exceed those numbers, you understand why he's a must-draft in round 13.
By the way, I bet most of you are thinking, "You picked the wrong QB." Joe Burrow is exceptional, and if he rises to QB1 levels as a rookie, no one should be surprised. But he's also still a rookie, with no preseason games to help get acclimated. Even the greatest QBs have needed some games--or in some cases, a season or two--to find their groove. Burrow should be better from the halfway point forward; Jimmy should be better overall. If you don't agree, hit me up at the end of the season, and if you're right, great job.
As for the biggest bust, I won't count Armstead because of his injury. Instead, I'll go against the grain and stick with a position I've had since June: Ryan Tannehill won't recapture last year's magic. Everything clicked for the 32-year-old, arguably because Derrick Henry carried the offense. A potentially slight dip in the offensive line, as well as unsustainable efficiency in the passing game, make Tannehill a top 16-18 QB at best, and the most likely bust in this group.
And with that, here's the best bargain and bust in round 13:
145 Nyheim Hines IND (7) RB49
146 Ryquell Armstead JAC (7) RB50
147 Dallas Goedert PHI (9) TE17
148 Chase Edmonds ARI (8) RB51
149 Ryan Tannehill TEN (7) QB18
150 Chicago Bears DST (11) DST6
151 Joe Burrow CIN (9) QB19
152 Jimmy Garoppolo SF (11) QB20
153 Jack Doyle IND (7) TE18
154 Sammy Watkins KC (10) WR56
155 Curtis Samuel CAR (13) WR57
156 Jonnu Smith TEN (7) TE19
Gotta say, this is not my favorite grouping, though that should be obvious. Hines has a tougher hill to climb playing with a better pass-catching back in Jonathan Taylor, while Marlon Mack isn't going anywhere. Watkins and Samuel could finish as their respective team's fourth best receiver (including TE). Jack Doyle seems like a safe bet, though as previously stated, I'd be surprised if he cracks the top 12. Jonnu Smith has a comparable floor and ceiling for a slightly cheaper price (and actually, if there were preseason games, I think we would have seen Jonnu's breakout potential).
Still, there's one guy who stands out as the most obvious fantasy bargain--a sure-fire steal at his price point. Last summer I pushed two 20-something ADP QBs: Matthew Stafford and Jimmy G. The former is now priced closer to his likely potential. The latter still isn't getting enough respect. Jimmy was last year's 14th best fantasy QB despite returning from a serious injury that often limits QBs in their first season back. If you think he'll match last year's roughly 4,000/27 output, then why let him slide? And if you think, as I do, that he'll exceed those numbers, you understand why he's a must-draft in round 13.
By the way, I bet most of you are thinking, "You picked the wrong QB." Joe Burrow is exceptional, and if he rises to QB1 levels as a rookie, no one should be surprised. But he's also still a rookie, with no preseason games to help get acclimated. Even the greatest QBs have needed some games--or in some cases, a season or two--to find their groove. Burrow should be better from the halfway point forward; Jimmy should be better overall. If you don't agree, hit me up at the end of the season, and if you're right, great job.
As for the biggest bust, I won't count Armstead because of his injury. Instead, I'll go against the grain and stick with a position I've had since June: Ryan Tannehill won't recapture last year's magic. Everything clicked for the 32-year-old, arguably because Derrick Henry carried the offense. A potentially slight dip in the offensive line, as well as unsustainable efficiency in the passing game, make Tannehill a top 16-18 QB at best, and the most likely bust in this group.