On to round 12 in the bargain/bust ADP rundown on this sunny/rainy/overcast/ day (customize it as you see fit):
133 Mecole Hardman KC (10) WR52
134 Tony Pollard DAL (10) RB46
135 Ke'Shawn Vaughn TB (13) RB47
136 Jared Goff LAR (9) QB16
137 Ryquell Armstead JAC (7) RB48
138 Anthony Miller CHI (11) WR53
139 Antonio Gibson WAS (8) RB49
140 Boston Scott PHI (9) RB50
141 Baker Mayfield CLE (9) QB17
142 Mike Williams LAC (10) WR54
143 Wil Lutz NO (6) K3
144 New England Patriots DST (6) DST5
As always, this isn't about upside. If it were, then Pollard would be a fairly obvious pick. And by the way, I'd probably take Pollard at this point, because I'm an upside drafter: buy a bunch of lottery tickets, hope one or two pan out, and then back-fill. Then repeat during the season through waivers.
But no, this feature is about picking the most reliable bargain. Who's the most automatic steal in round 12? Hardman is tempting, though he'll be the #4 or #5 option on offense, so there's a chance he's priced right. Williams would've been my pick if he weren't expected to miss games (otherwise he'd be in my top 35). I like Miller, though that's more me *thinking* he'll take another step forward; the quarterback situation keeps him in the "risky" camp. Speaking of QB, I'm torn between two of them. Mayfield was my biggest QB bust last summer, as I railed against his RB-5 ADP, to the consternation of anyone who was consternated (or whatever the word is). Now he's undervalued. But how much undervalued? Can he be a top-12 option? Yes. So what's the issue?
While I think Mayfield is a bargain, Goff is the bigger and safer bargain. Why would I say that? Isn't Goff this mini-generation's Blake Bortles? Look, the Rams' o-line was atrocious last year, and it's not likely to be worse this year. Goff managed to finish 13th in fantasy scoring despite having a "bad" year: 4,638/22/16. Todd Gurley is gone, and that might be a net positive for Goff's fantasy managers, as 12 of Gurley's last 17 touchdowns came inside the 5-yard line. While I'm not saying Goff suddenly will be frequently trusted to convert from close range, I like Goff's chances of poaching a few more scores. His QB-16 ADP assumes a continued regression. I'm not buying it, and instead like Goff as a QB1, just like Mayfield--but with a higher floor. It's close, but I'm sticking with it.
At bust, I'm skipping Williams because of his injury, but I won't skip Ryquell Armstead, who failed to impress in 2019, and is now part of one of the worst three-headed monsters in recent NFL history. While that might not be fair to say, Armstead is barely in the top-60 RB conversation and is essentially a throwaway pick in a round where plenty of higher-floor, higher-ceiling players are available.
133 Mecole Hardman KC (10) WR52
134 Tony Pollard DAL (10) RB46
135 Ke'Shawn Vaughn TB (13) RB47
136 Jared Goff LAR (9) QB16
137 Ryquell Armstead JAC (7) RB48
138 Anthony Miller CHI (11) WR53
139 Antonio Gibson WAS (8) RB49
140 Boston Scott PHI (9) RB50
141 Baker Mayfield CLE (9) QB17
142 Mike Williams LAC (10) WR54
143 Wil Lutz NO (6) K3
144 New England Patriots DST (6) DST5
As always, this isn't about upside. If it were, then Pollard would be a fairly obvious pick. And by the way, I'd probably take Pollard at this point, because I'm an upside drafter: buy a bunch of lottery tickets, hope one or two pan out, and then back-fill. Then repeat during the season through waivers.
But no, this feature is about picking the most reliable bargain. Who's the most automatic steal in round 12? Hardman is tempting, though he'll be the #4 or #5 option on offense, so there's a chance he's priced right. Williams would've been my pick if he weren't expected to miss games (otherwise he'd be in my top 35). I like Miller, though that's more me *thinking* he'll take another step forward; the quarterback situation keeps him in the "risky" camp. Speaking of QB, I'm torn between two of them. Mayfield was my biggest QB bust last summer, as I railed against his RB-5 ADP, to the consternation of anyone who was consternated (or whatever the word is). Now he's undervalued. But how much undervalued? Can he be a top-12 option? Yes. So what's the issue?
While I think Mayfield is a bargain, Goff is the bigger and safer bargain. Why would I say that? Isn't Goff this mini-generation's Blake Bortles? Look, the Rams' o-line was atrocious last year, and it's not likely to be worse this year. Goff managed to finish 13th in fantasy scoring despite having a "bad" year: 4,638/22/16. Todd Gurley is gone, and that might be a net positive for Goff's fantasy managers, as 12 of Gurley's last 17 touchdowns came inside the 5-yard line. While I'm not saying Goff suddenly will be frequently trusted to convert from close range, I like Goff's chances of poaching a few more scores. His QB-16 ADP assumes a continued regression. I'm not buying it, and instead like Goff as a QB1, just like Mayfield--but with a higher floor. It's close, but I'm sticking with it.
At bust, I'm skipping Williams because of his injury, but I won't skip Ryquell Armstead, who failed to impress in 2019, and is now part of one of the worst three-headed monsters in recent NFL history. While that might not be fair to say, Armstead is barely in the top-60 RB conversation and is essentially a throwaway pick in a round where plenty of higher-floor, higher-ceiling players are available.